arXiv:2603.20297cs.LGcs.AI2026-03被引 1

用Transformer预测仪器漂移时间,实现智能校准调度。

Transformer-Based Predictive Maintenance for Risk-Aware Instrument Calibration

论文配图:Transformer-Based Predictive Maintenance for Risk-Aware Instrument Calibration
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于传感器历史数据,用Transformer预测漂移发生时间。
  • 相比固定周期校准,可降低37%成本并减少68%越限事件。
  • 适合需要高可靠性校准的工业场景,如航空航天设备维护。

准确的校准对需长期保持可追溯性、可靠性和合规性的仪器至关重要。固定周期校准虽易实施,但忽略了仪器在不同工况下漂移速率差异。本文将校准调度建模为预测性维护问题:基于近期传感器数据,估计漂移时间(TTD),并在违规前干预。将NASA C-MAPSS基准改造成校准场景,选取敏感传感器,定义虚拟校准阈值,并插入模拟重置事件以模拟重复校准。比较经典回归器、循环与卷积序列模型及紧凑Transformer在TTD预测上的表现。Transformer在主数据集FD001上提供最强点预测,且在更难的FD002–FD004上仍具竞争力;基于分位数的不确定性模型可在漂移行为噪声较大时支持保守调度。在考虑违规成本的模型下,预测性调度相比反应式和固定策略显著降低成本,不确定性感知触发机制在点预测不可靠时显著减少违规。结果表明,基于状态的校准可视为联合预测与决策问题,结合序列模型与风险感知策略是实现智能校准规划的可行路径。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate calibration is essential for instruments whose measurements must remain traceable, reliable, and compliant over long operating periods. Fixed-interval programs are easy to administer, but they ignore that instruments drift at different rates under different conditions. This paper studies calibration scheduling as a predictive maintenance problem: given recent sensor histories, estimate time-to-drift (TTD) and intervene before a violation occurs. We adapt the NASA C-MAPSS benchmark into a calibration setting by selecting drift-sensitive sensors, defining virtual calibration thresholds, and inserting synthetic reset events that emulate repeated recalibration. We then compare classical regressors, recurrent and convolutional sequence models, and a compact Transformer for TTD prediction. The Transformer provides the strongest point forecasts on the primary FD001 split and remains competitive on the harder FD002--FD004 splits, while a quantile-based uncertainty model supports conservative scheduling when drift behavior is noisier. Under a violation-aware cost model, predictive scheduling lowers cost relative to reactive and fixed policies, and uncertainty-aware triggers sharply reduce violations when point forecasts are less reliable. The results show that condition-based calibration can be framed as a joint forecasting and decision problem, and that combining sequence models with risk-aware policies is a practical route toward smarter calibration planning.

预测性维护Transformer校准调度工业物联网

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