arXiv:2603.20365stat.MLcs.AI2026-03被引 2

用高斯混合模型更准确地表示和传播测量中的不确定性。

Comprehensive Description of Uncertainty in Measurement for Representation and Propagation with Scalable Precision

  • 用高斯混合模型替代传统高斯假设,提升不确定性建模精度。
  • 在制造与测量场景中实现复杂不确定性传播的闭式解,计算效率高。
  • 适合需高精度建模的工业控制与精密测量领域使用。

概率论已成为科学与工程领域量化不确定性的主流框架,尤其在测量与控制系统中广泛应用。然而,对简单高斯假设的普遍依赖,常导致复杂现象的不完整表征及多阶段有损近似,造成不确定性传播失真。本文提出一种兼顾全面性与计算可处理性的框架,利用概率密度函数(PDF)表征测量系统中的定量属性,并通过高斯混合模型(GMM)实现不确定性表示与传播。鉴于软件系统内存有限,GMM作为高斯框架的合理扩展,具备逼近任意PDF的能力,其复杂度可调,可在近似精度与内存/计算开销间灵活权衡。从数学与计算角度,GMM支持控制与测量中的关键操作获得高精度甚至闭式解。论文在制造与测量场景(如圆形工厂)中展示了实际应用,验证了该框架在保持计算可行性的同时,显著优于传统高斯方法的准确性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Probability theory has become the predominant framework for quantifying uncertainty across scientific and engineering disciplines, with a particular focus on measurement and control systems. However, the widespread reliance on simple Gaussian assumptions--particularly in control theory, manufacturing, and measurement systems--can result in incomplete representations and multistage lossy approximations of complex phenomena, including inaccurate propagation of uncertainty through multi stage processes. This work proposes a comprehensive yet computationally tractable framework for representing and propagating quantitative attributes arising in measurement systems using Probability Density Functions (PDFs). Recognizing the constraints imposed by finite memory in software systems, we advocate for the use of Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs), a principled extension of the familiar Gaussian framework, as they are universal approximators of PDFs whose complexity can be tuned to trade off approximation accuracy against memory and computation. From both mathematical and computational perspectives, GMMs enable high performance and, in many cases, closed form solutions of essential operations in control and measurement. The paper presents practical applications within manufacturing and measurement contexts especially circular factory, demonstrating how the GMMs framework supports accurate representation and propagation of measurement uncertainty and offers improved accuracy--compared to the traditional Gaussian framework--while keeping the computations tractable.

不确定性高斯混合测量系统控制理论

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