融合时空特征与图神经网络,提升电力窃电检测精度。
Spatio-Temporal Grid Intelligence: A Hybrid Graph Neural Network and LSTM Framework for Robust Electricity Theft Detection
- 结合LSTM、随机森林和图神经网络,同时捕捉时间与空间异常。
- 在不平衡数据下实现93.7%准确率,窃电检测精确率55%,召回率50%。
- 适合电网安全团队用于主动发现隐蔽窃电行为。
电力窃电(非技术损失,NTL)对全球电力系统构成持续威胁,导致巨额财务损失并影响电网稳定。传统以电表为中心的检测方法难以捕捉复杂的时空动态与欺诈行为模式。本文提出一种融合时间序列异常检测、监督学习与图神经网络(GNN)的AI驱动电网智能框架,在不平衡数据中实现高精度窃电识别。利用滚动均值、电压降估计及关键电网失衡指数等丰富特征,采用LSTM自编码器进行时序异常评分,随机森林处理表格特征,图神经网络建模配电网中的空间依赖关系。实验表明,单一异常检测的窃电F1分数仅为0.20,而混合融合方法整体准确率达93.7%。通过精确率-召回率分析校准阈值,系统实现55%的精确率与50%的召回率,显著降低单模型带来的误报。结果证实,结合电网拓扑感知与时空分析,可提供可扩展、风险导向的主动窃电检测方案,增强智能电网可靠性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Electricity theft, or non-technical loss (NTL), presents a persistent threat to global power systems, driving significant financial deficits and compromising grid stability. Conventional detection methodologies, predominantly reactive and meter-centric, often fail to capture the complex spatio-temporal dynamics and behavioral patterns associated with fraudulent consumption. This study introduces a novel AI-driven Grid Intelligence Framework that fuses Time-Series Anomaly Detection, Supervised Machine Learning, and Graph Neural Networks (GNN) to identify theft with high precision in imbalanced datasets. Leveraging an enriched feature set, including rolling averages, voltage drop estimates, and a critical Grid Imbalance Index, the methodology employs a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) autoencoder for temporal anomaly scoring, a Random Forest classifier for tabular feature discrimination, and a GNN to model spatial dependencies across the distribution network. Experimental validation demonstrates that while standalone anomaly detection yields a low theft F1-score of 0.20, the proposed hybrid fusion achieves an overall accuracy of 93.7%. By calibrating decision thresholds via precision-recall analysis, the system attains a balanced theft precision of 0.55 and recall of 0.50, effectively mitigating the false positives inherent in single-model approaches. These results confirm that integrating topological grid awareness with temporal and supervised analytics provides a scalable, risk-based solution for proactive electricity theft detection and enhanced smart grid reliability.
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