arXiv:2603.20678cs.AIecon.GN2026-03

用AI模拟分层多伴侣制度,解决低生育与性别失衡难题。

AI-Driven Multi-Agent Simulation of Stratified Polyamory Systems: A Computational Framework for Optimizing Social Reproductive Efficiency

  • 构建多智能体系统,用强化学习模拟分层匹配关系。
  • 中国2023年总和生育率仅1.0,韩国低于0.72,模型可优化社会福利。
  • 适合关注社会结构、算法公平与未来婚育制度的研究者。

当代社会面临严重的人口再生产危机。全球生育率持续暴跌,东亚国家趋势尤为显著——中国2023年总和生育率(TFR)降至约1.0,韩国低于0.72。同时,婚姻制度正经历结构性瓦解:受教育女性理性拒绝缺乏情感满足与经济保障的婚姻,而社会底层男性则长期处于性剥夺、焦虑与习得性无助状态。本文提出一种基于代理建模(ABM)、多智能体强化学习(MARL)及大语言模型(LLM)赋能的社会模拟的计算框架,用于建模与评估分层多伴侣系统(SPS)。SPS允许个体在拥有一个主配偶的基础上,合法拥有有限数量的次级伴侣,并结合社会化育儿与继承制度改革。我们将A/B/C三层社会阶层形式化为异质智能体类型,将匹配过程建模为可由近端策略优化(PPO)求解的MARL问题,使用图神经网络(GNN)分析婚配网络。基于进化心理学、行为生态学、社会分层理论、计算社会科学、算法公平与制度经济学,我们论证SPS可在帕累托意义上提升整体社会福利。初步计算结果表明该框架具备应对女性母职惩罚与男性性匮乏双重危机的可行性,同时提供一种非暴力财富分散机制,类似历史上中国的‘恩赐令’(Tui'en Ling)。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Contemporary societies face a severe crisis of demographic reproduction. Global fertility rates continue to decline precipitously, with East Asian nations exhibiting the most dramatic trends -- China's total fertility rate (TFR) fell to approximately 1.0 in 2023, while South Korea's dropped below 0.72. Simultaneously, the institution of marriage is undergoing structural disintegration: educated women rationally reject unions lacking both emotional fulfillment and economic security, while a growing proportion of men at the lower end of the socioeconomic spectrum experience chronic sexual deprivation, anxiety, and learned helplessness. This paper proposes a computational framework for modeling and evaluating a Stratified Polyamory System (SPS) using techniques from agent-based modeling (ABM), multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL), and large language model (LLM)-empowered social simulation. The SPS permits individuals to maintain a limited number of legally recognized secondary partners in addition to one primary spouse, combined with socialized child-rearing and inheritance reform. We formalize the A/B/C stratification as heterogeneous agent types in a multi-agent system and model the matching process as a MARL problem amenable to Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO). The mating network is analyzed using graph neural network (GNN) representations. Drawing on evolutionary psychology, behavioral ecology, social stratification theory, computational social science, algorithmic fairness, and institutional economics, we argue that SPS can improve aggregate social welfare in the Pareto sense. Preliminary computational results demonstrate the framework's viability in addressing the dual crisis of female motherhood penalties and male sexlessness, while offering a non-violent mechanism for wealth dispersion analogous to the historical Chinese Grace Decree (Tui'en Ling).

多伴侣社会仿真生育率智能体

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