arXiv:2603.20869cs.AIcs.LG2026-03

针对高频金融数据延迟问题,提出轻量级混合模型提升预测鲁棒性。

ReLaMix: Residual Latency-Aware Mixing for Delay-Robust Financial Time-Series Forecasting

  • 通过残差混合机制抑制过时数据冗余,保留有效市场动态。
  • 在PAXGUSDT数据上,多种延迟比例下均达顶尖准确率,参数更少。
  • 适用于高频交易中存在数据延迟的场景,跨资产表现良好。

真实高频金融市场中的金融时间序列预测常受异步数据获取和传输延迟影响,导致观测值滞后或部分过时。为更贴近实际,本文研究一种模拟延迟设置:部分历史信号受零阶保持(ZOH)机制污染,引发阶梯式停滞伪影,显著增加预测难度。为此,提出ReLaMix(残差延迟感知混合网络),作为TimeMixer的轻量级扩展,结合可学习瓶颈压缩与残差精炼,实现对延迟观测下的鲁棒信号恢复。ReLaMix显式抑制重复过时值带来的冗余,同时通过残差混合增强保留有信息量的市场动态。在大规模秒级分辨率的PAXGUSDT基准测试中,ReLaMix在多个延迟比例和预测时长下持续达到最先进精度,相比强基线的混合器与Transformer模型,参数量显著更少。此外,在BTCUSDT上的额外评估验证了该框架的跨资产泛化能力。结果表明,残差瓶颈混合策略在真实延迟导致的数据过时条件下,对高频金融预测具有显著有效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Financial time-series forecasting in real-world high-frequency markets is often hindered by delayed or partially stale observations caused by asynchronous data acquisition and transmission latency. To better reflect such practical conditions, we investigate a simulated delay setting where a portion of historical signals is corrupted by a Zero-Order Hold (ZOH) mechanism, significantly increasing forecasting difficulty through stepwise stagnation artifacts. In this paper, we propose ReLaMix (Residual Latency-Aware Mixing Network), a lightweight extension of TimeMixer that integrates learnable bottleneck compression with residual refinement for robust signal recovery under delayed observations. ReLaMix explicitly suppresses redundancy from repeated stale values while preserving informative market dynamics via residual mixing enhancement. Experiments on a large-scale second-resolution PAXGUSDT benchmark demonstrate that ReLaMix consistently achieves state-of-the-art accuracy across multiple delay ratios and prediction horizons, outperforming strong mixer and Transformer baselines with substantially fewer parameters. Moreover, additional evaluations on BTCUSDT confirm the cross-asset generalization ability of the proposed framework. These results highlight the effectiveness of residual bottleneck mixing for high-frequency financial forecasting under realistic latency-induced staleness.

金融预测延迟建模时间序列轻量模型

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