arXiv:2603.21034cs.LG2026-03

用经典机器学习预测汽车油耗,发现重量和排量是核心影响因素

Fuel Consumption Prediction: A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Paradigms

  • 对比线性回归、SVM与逻辑回归,用数据清洗降低特征干扰
  • SVM在连续预测中准确率88.9%,逻辑回归分类准确率达90.8%
  • 适合关注可解释性模型的车企工程师和低碳设计研究者

汽车行业面临日益增长的环保压力,亟需精准预测模型支持可持续工程设计。本研究基于经典的Motor Trend数据集,通过严谨的量化分析识别决定车辆燃油效率的关键物理因素。研究采用数据清洗、统计异常值剔除及深入探索性数据分析(EDA),有效缓解动力系统特征间的多重共线性问题。对多元线性回归、支持向量机(SVM)和逻辑回归等机器学习范式进行比较分析,结果表明:在连续预测任务中,SVM回归表现最佳(R² = 0.889,RMSE = 0.326),能有效捕捉车重与发动机排量之间的非线性关系;在分类任务中,逻辑回归精度达90.8%,识别低效车辆的召回率达0.957。研究挑战了当前对黑箱深度学习架构的过度依赖,验证了可解释且调优良好的经典模型在静态物理数据上的优异性能。结论指出,车辆内在效率根本上由物理设计参数决定,尤其是重量与排量,为制造商通过轻量化与小排量设计实现全球可持续目标提供了数据驱动框架。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The automotive industry is under growing pressure to reduce its environmental impact, requiring accurate predictive modeling to support sustainable engineering design. This study examines the factors that determine vehicle fuel consumption from the seminal Motor Trend dataset, identifying the governing physical factors of efficiency through rigorous quantitative analysis. Methodologically, the research uses data sanitization, statistical outlier elimination, and in-depth Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) to curb the occurrence of multicollinearity between powertrain features. A comparative analysis of machine learning paradigms including Multiple Linear Regression, Support Vector Machines (SVM), and Logistic Regression was carried out to assess predictive efficacy. Findings indicate that SVM Regression is most accurate on continuous prediction (R-squared = 0.889, RMSE = 0.326), and is effective in capturing the non-linear relationships between vehicle mass and engine displacement. In parallel, Logistic Regression proved superior for classification (Accuracy = 90.8%) and showed exceptional recall (0.957) when identifying low-efficiency vehicles. These results challenge the current trend toward black-box deep learning architectures for static physical datasets, providing validation of robust performance by interpretable and well-tuned classical models. The research finds that intrinsic vehicle efficiency is fundamentally determined by physical design parameters, weight and displacement, offering a data-driven framework for how manufacturers should focus on lightweighting and engine downsizing to achieve stringent global sustainability goals.

油耗预测机器学习可解释性汽车设计

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。