高早期成功率导致行为与元认知脱钩，引发持续失败仍坚持的非理性坚持。
Confidence Freeze: Early Success Induces a Metastable Decoupling of Metacognition and Behaviour
- 用多轮老虎机任务发现早期成功者在反转后仍坚持失败策略。
- 早期成功组平均连续失败6.2次，元认知信心从5降至2（7分制）。
- 该现象是动态学习状态，适合研究决策固化与自我评估机制的人参考。
人类需在探索与利用间灵活权衡，却常因持续执行失效策略而表现非适应性坚持。本文提出‘信心冻结’假说，将此类坚持视为动态学习状态而非稳定特质。通过三个实验（总样本量332人，19,920次试验）的多轮双臂老虎机任务，我们发现正常学习者会利用结果轨迹的对称统计结构：连续成功暗示环境稳定，支持策略维持；连续失败则提供负面证据，应提高转换概率。对照组行为符合这一规范模式。然而，早期成功率较高者（90%对比60%）在首次反转后表现出显著且选择性的偏差：即使经历长达6.2次的连续失败，仍持续坚持原有策略，同时其元认知信心评分从5降至2（7点量表）。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Humans must flexibly arbitrate between exploring alternatives and exploiting learned strategies, yet they frequently exhibit maladaptive persistence by continuing to execute failing strategies despite accumulating negative evidence. Here we propose a ``confidence-freeze'' account that reframes such persistence as a dynamic learning state rather than a stable dispositional trait. Using a multi-reversal two-armed bandit task across three experiments (total N = 332; 19,920 trials), we first show that human learners normally make use of the symmetric statistical structure inherent in outcome trajectories: runs of successes provide positive evidence for environmental stability and thus for strategy maintenance, whereas runs of failures provide negative evidence and should raise switching probability. Behaviour in the control group conformed to this normative pattern. However, individuals who experienced a high rate of early success (90\% vs.\ 60\%) displayed a robust and selective distortion after the first reversal: they persisted through long stretches of non-reward (mean = 6.2 consecutive losses) while their metacognitive confidence ratings simultaneously dropped from 5 to 2 on a 7-point scale.
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