TRACE用多智能体系统自动推断地震机制,提升地震分析的可复现性与普适性。
TRACE: A Multi-Agent System for Autonomous Physical Reasoning for Seismology
- 结合大模型规划与地震学约束,实现从原始数据自动推断物理机制。
- 在2019年里奇克雷斯特地震中识别出应力扰动引发的延迟触发过程。
- 适用于地震与火山活动研究,助力地质学家开展自主发现式分析。
从地球物理观测中推断地震序列的物理机制仍具挑战性,尤其在构造环境不同的区域,相似地震模式可能对应不同成因。当前地震处理依赖专家参数选择与多源产品综合,限制了结果的可复现性与跨场景知识积累。本文提出TRACE(跨视角推理与自动化综合评估系统),一种结合大语言模型规划与正式地震学约束的多智能体系统,可从原始观测中生成可审计、物理可信的机制推论。应用于2019年里奇克雷斯特地震序列,系统自主识别出应力扰动引发的延迟触发,揭示了主震(Mw 6.4与Mw 7.1)间的级联作用;针对2025年圣托里尼-科伦博火山喷发,系统提出结构引导的岩浆侵入模型,区分了通过断层通道的阶段性迁移与均质地壳破裂中的连续扩展。该系统为地震现象提供通用化物理洞察框架,推动地球科学从专家依赖分析迈向知识驱动的自主发现。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Inferring physical mechanisms that govern earthquake sequences from geophysical observations remains a challenging task, particularly across tectonically distinct environments where similar seismic patterns can reflect different underlying processes. Current seismological processing and interpretation rely heavily on experts' choice of parameters and the synthesis of various seismological products, limiting reproducibility and the formation of generalizable knowledge across settings. Here we present TRACE (Trans-perspective Reasoning and Automated Comprehensive Evaluator), a multi-agent system that combines large language model planning with formal seismological constraints to derive auditable, physically grounded mechanistic inferences from raw observations. Applied to the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence, TRACE autonomously identifies stress-perturbation-induced delayed triggering, resolving the cascading interaction between the Mw 6.4 and Mw 7.1 mainshocks. For the 2025 Santorini-Kolumbo volcanic eruption, the system identifies a structurally guided intrusion model, distinguishing episodic migration via fault channels from the continuous propagation expected in homogeneous crustal failure. By providing a generalizable infrastructure for deriving physical insights from seismic phenomena, TRACE advances the field from expert-dependent analysis toward knowledge-guided autonomous discovery in Earth sciences.
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