用创新扩散模型预测生成式AI的环保影响，发现其实际影响可能被夸大。
Is the future of AI green? What can innovation diffusion models say about generative AI's environmental impact?
- 基于A-U模型分析生成式AI技术扩散过程
- 不同商业模式决定环保影响程度差异
- 经济驱动下的性能优化可降低环境负担
生成式人工智能（GAI）的兴起引发了对其环境影响的严重担忧。然而，这些预测往往忽略了创新扩散过程中产品迭代与性能优化的规律——主要由经济动机驱动，也可能带来环境影响的下降。通过经典A-U创新扩散模型分析GAI生态系统，可预测该行业的结构演变及其环境影响趋势。尽管GAI永远不会真正‘绿色’，但其实际环境影响可能不像某些说法那样严峻，这取决于主导商业模式的形成。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The rise of generative artificial intelligence (GAI) has led to alarming predictions about its environmental impact. However, these predictions often overlook the fact that the diffusion of innovation is accompanied by the evolution of products and the optimization of their performance, primarily for economic reasons. This can also reduce their environmental impact. By analyzing the GAI ecosystem using the classic A-U innovation diffusion model, we can forecast this industry's structure and how its environmental impact will evolve. While GAI will never be green, its impact may not be as problematic as is sometimes claimed. However, this depends on which business model becomes dominant.
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