arXiv:2603.21639cs.CYcs.LG2026-03

用多源数据融合精准估算日本地方城市人流,纠正天气干扰带来的偏差。

A Multi-Modal Sensor Fusion Instrument for Measuring Regional Human Mobility: The Distributed Human Data Engine (DHDE)

  • 融合摄像头、搜索记录、消费与问卷数据,构建分布式人流测量系统。
  • 模型在样本内解释力达81%,跨时间预测仍保持68%的准确率。
  • 发现游客满意度与人流量正相关,揭示地方经济隐性流失问题。

在边缘区域经济中精确估算人类流动性面临根本性测量挑战:物理地面传感器稀疏,行为意图信号异质,环境摩擦导致需求推断产生系统性偏差。我们提出分布式人类数据引擎(DHDE),一种多模态传感器融合架构,通过整合边缘人工智能摄像头、路线搜索点击量等数字意图信号、90,350条消费记录、97,719份标准化问卷以及福井县四个地理分布节点的气象数据来应对该挑战。核心贡献在于设计、部署并跨节点验证了DHDE作为稀疏传感器补偿工具:一个将非平稳数字意图信号锚定于实时物理地面计数的异构传感器融合架构,有效校正气象规划摩擦引入的系统偏差。系统实现为集成推理流程(随机森林与带Newey-West稳健推断的普通最小二乘法),基于397个每日观测数据校准,并通过四种地理特征不同的节点进行时间序列留出验证。主要OLS模型在样本内解释力达到R² = 0.810,时间外样本预测性能为R² = 0.683。结果揭示‘低活力悖论’:宏观区域游客满意度与人群密度呈正相关(斯皮尔曼等级相关rs = +0.150,p = 0.002)。估算年度意向访问缺口达865,917人次,对应日本币119.6亿日元(约7260万美元)的潜在收入损失。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurately estimating human mobility in peripheral regional economies presents a fundamental measurement challenge: physical ground-truth sensors are sparse, behavioral intent signals are heterogeneous, and environmental friction introduces systematic bias into demand inference. We introduce the Distributed Human Data Engine (DHDE), a multi-modal sensor fusion architecture that addresses this challenge by integrating physical instrumentation (Edge-AI cameras), digital intent signals (route search impression metrics), behavioral records (90,350 spending records, 97,719 standardized survey responses), and meteorological data across four geographically distributed nodes in Fukui, Japan. The primary measurement-science contribution is the design, deployment, and cross-node validation of the DHDE as a sparse-sensor compensation instrument: a heterogeneous sensor fusion architecture that anchors non-stationary digital intent signals to concurrent physical ground-truth counts, correcting for systematic bias introduced by meteorological planning friction. The instrument is implemented as an ensemble inference pipeline (Random Forest and Ordinary Least Squares with Newey-West robust inference), calibrated across 397 daily observations and validated by chronological holdout replication across four geographically distinct node types. The primary OLS specification achieved an in-sample explanatory power of R2 = 0.810 and a chronological out-of-sample predictive performance of R2 = 0.683. Results identify an Under-Vibrancy Paradox where macro-regional visitor satisfaction correlates positively with crowd density (Spearman rank correlation rs = +0.150, p = 0.002). We estimate an annual proxy gap of 865,917 intent-implied visits, corresponding to JPY 11.96 billion (USD 72.6 million) in foregone revenue.

人流估计多模态融合城市经济

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。