arXiv:2603.21977cs.LGcs.SY2026-03

用树模型分步预测配电网电压,精度高且泛化强。

BOOST-RPF: Boosted Sequential Trees for Radial Power Flow

  • 将电压预测转为路径递推学习,用梯度提升树捕捉局部压降规律。
  • 在多个数据集上超越传统方法,对新拓扑保持高精度。
  • 计算线性增长,适合实时电网运行,特别适合电力系统工程师。

精确的潮流分析对现代配电系统至关重要,但传统求解器存在可扩展性问题,而当前机器学习模型常面临泛化能力不足。我们提出BOOST-RPF,将电压预测从全局图回归任务重构为基于路径的序列学习问题。通过将辐射状网络分解为根到叶路径,利用梯度提升决策树(XGBoost)建模局部电压降规律。评估了三种架构变体:绝对电压、父节点残差和物理信息残差。该方法与潮流的递归物理特性对齐,实现无尺寸依赖的应用,并具备出色的分布外鲁棒性。在Kerber Dorfnetz电网和ENGAGE套件上基准测试显示,其父节点残差变体在标准精度和泛化任务中持续优于解析和神经基线。相比之下,全局MLP和图神经网络在拓扑变化下性能下降,而BOOST-RPF在未见馈线中仍保持高精度。此外,该框架具有线性O(N)计算复杂度,通过每边监督显著提升样本效率,为配电系统运营商(DSO)的实时应用提供可扩展、可泛化的替代方案。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate power flow analysis is critical for modern distribution systems, yet classical solvers face scalability issues, and current machine learning models often struggle with generalization. We introduce BOOST-RPF, a novel method that reformulates voltage prediction from a global graph regression task into a sequential path-based learning problem. By decomposing radial networks into root-to-leaf paths, we leverage gradient-boosted decision trees (XGBoost) to model local voltage-drop regularities. We evaluate three architectural variants: Absolute Voltage, Parent Residual, and Physics-Informed Residual. This approach aligns the model architecture with the recursive physics of power flow, ensuring size-agnostic application and superior out-of-distribution robustness. Benchmarked against the Kerber Dorfnetz grid and the ENGAGE suite, BOOST-RPF achieves state-of-the-art results with its Parent Residual variant which consistently outperforms both analytical and neural baselines in standard accuracy and generalization tasks. While global Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs) and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) often suffer from performance degradation under topological shifts, BOOST-RPF maintains high precision across unseen feeders. Furthermore, the framework displays linear $O(N)$ computational scaling and significantly increased sample efficiency through per-edge supervision, offering a scalable and generalizable alternative for real-time distribution system operator (DSO) applications.

配电网电压预测梯度提升可扩展性

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