arXiv:2603.22035cs.AI2026-03

用辫子理论建模多智能体交互,提升自动驾驶轨迹预测精度。

Future-Interactions-Aware Trajectory Prediction via Braid Theory

  • 用辫子结构表示多智能体未来轨迹交叉关系,捕捉协同行为模式。
  • 引入辫子预测辅助任务,显著提升三组数据集上的联合预测指标。
  • 无需增加计算开销,适合需精准交互理解的自动驾驶场景。

为安全运行,自动驾驶车辆必须预知周围多个交互智能体的未来行为,这通常被建模为多智能体轨迹预测问题。以往方法在建模社会交互时或计算开销大,或依赖启发式规则标注行为类型。辫子理论则通过将未来轨迹投影为表达轨迹随时间交叉方式的辫子,提供对多智能体行为的精确描述;一个辫子对应一种未来的协同模式。此前工作仅轻量使用辫子理论,用于限制预测注意力窗口。本文表明,更充分地利用辫子表示的表达能力,并将其作为轨迹生成的条件,可带来更大的联合预测性能提升,且训练与推理复杂度几乎不变。为此,我们提出一个新颖的辅助任务——辫子预测,与轨迹预测并行进行。通过分类智能体间边的正确交叉类型,该任务使模型获得更强的社会感知能力,反映在联合预测结果更贴近真实多智能体行为。这一简单辅助任务在三个独立数据集上均实现显著性能提升。我们还展示了辫子预测如何赋予模型对未来意图的感知,从而提高联合预测准确性。代码已公开于github.com/caiocj1/traj-pred-braid-theory。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

To safely operate, an autonomous vehicle must know the future behavior of a potentially high number of interacting agents around it, a task often posed as multi-agent trajectory prediction. Many previous attempts to model social interactions and solve the joint prediction task either add extensive computational requirements or rely on heuristics to label multi-agent behavior types. Braid theory, in contrast, provides a powerful exact descriptor of multi-agent behavior by projecting future trajectories into braids that express how trajectories cross with each other over time; a braid then corresponds to a specific mode of coordination between the multiple agents in the future. In past work, braids have been used lightly to reason about interacting agents and restrict the attention window of predicted agents. We show that leveraging more fully the expressivity of the braid representation and using it to condition the trajectories themselves leads to even further gains in joint prediction performance, with negligible added complexity either in training or at inference time. We do so by proposing a novel auxiliary task, braid prediction, done in parallel with the trajectory prediction task. By classifying edges between agents into their correct crossing types in the braid representation, the braid prediction task is able to imbue the model with improved social awareness, which is reflected in joint predictions that more closely adhere to the actual multi-agent behavior. This simple auxiliary task allowed us to obtain significant improvements in joint metrics on three separate datasets. We show how the braid prediction task infuses the model with future intention awareness, leading to more accurate joint predictions. Code is available at github.com/caiocj1/traj-pred-braid-theory.

轨迹预测多智能体辫子理论自动驾驶

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