针对风电突变事件预测中的数据不平衡问题,提出直接分类新方法。
A Direct Classification Approach for Reliable Wind Ramp Event Forecasting under Severe Class Imbalance
- 将风电突变预测建模为多变量时间序列分类,融合欠采样与集成学习
- 在真实数据上达到85%准确率和88%加权F1分数,显著优于基线模型
- 适合电网调度系统实时预警,尤其适用于突变事件稀少的场景
决策支持系统对维持低碳电力系统的电网稳定性至关重要,例如通过向控制室操作员提供风电功率突变事件(WPREs)的实时预警。这些早期警报可促使及时启动更详细的系统稳定性评估和预防措施。然而,由于WPRE数据集存在固有的类别不平衡——突变事件占比通常低于15%——常规机器学习模型易偏向多数类,导致性能下降。本文提出一种新型多变量时间序列分类方法,并设计数据预处理策略,从近期功率观测中提取特征并掩蔽缺失的突变信息,实现与传统实时突变识别工具的无缝集成。特别地,该方法结合多数类欠采样与集成学习,在真实世界数据集上的数值模拟显示,其准确率超过85%,加权F1分数达88%,显著优于基准分类器。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Decision support systems are essential for maintaining grid stability in low-carbon power systems, such as wind power plants, by providing real-time alerts to control room operators regarding potential events, including Wind Power Ramp Events (WPREs). These early warnings enable the timely initiation of more detailed system stability assessments and preventive actions. However, forecasting these events is challenging due to the inherent class imbalance in WPRE datasets, where ramp events are less frequent (typically less than 15\% of observed events) compared to normal conditions. Ignoring this characteristic undermines the performance of conventional machine learning models, which often favor the majority class. This paper introduces a novel methodology for WPRE forecasting as a multivariate time series classification task and proposes a data preprocessing strategy that extracts features from recent power observations and masks unavailable ramp information, making it integrable with traditional real-time ramp identification tools. Particularly, the proposed methodology combines majority-class undersampling and ensemble learning to enhance wind ramp event forecasting under class imbalance. Numerical simulations conducted on a real-world dataset demonstrate the superiority of our approach, achieving over 85% accuracy and 88% weighted F1 score, outperforming benchmark classifiers.
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