arXiv:2603.22404cs.AIcs.LG2026-03

AI模型市场中,套利者通过组合不同模型获利,推动价格下降并促进小模型进入市场。

Computational Arbitrage in AI Model Markets

  • 利用多个模型组合推理,以更低成本提供服务实现盈利
  • 在GitHub问题解决任务中,套利策略最高获40%净利润率
  • 适合关注模型定价、部署和市场竞争的研究者

考虑一个由多个模型提供商竞争的市场,它们出售对不同成本与能力模型的查询访问权。客户提交问题实例,并愿意支付不超过预算的费用以获得可验证的解决方案。套利者通过高效分配推理预算,压低市场价格,从而提供更具竞争力的服务,且无需承担模型研发风险。本文首次研究了人工智能模型市场中的套利行为,实证表明其可行性并揭示其经济影响。以SWE-bench GitHub问题解决为例,使用GPT-5 mini和DeepSeek v3.2两个代表性模型进行深度案例分析,在可验证领域中,简单套利策略可实现最高达40%的净利润。鲁棒性套利策略在跨领域场景下仍保持盈利。模型蒸馏进一步创造了强套利机会,可能损害教师模型收益。多个套利者竞争导致消费者价格下降,压缩了模型提供商的边际收入。同时,套利减少了市场分割,使小型模型提供商得以更早实现收入。结果表明,套利是人工智能模型市场中具有深远影响的力量,对模型开发、蒸馏与部署均有启示。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Consider a market of competing model providers selling query access to models with varying costs and capabilities. Customers submit problem instances and are willing to pay up to a budget for a verifiable solution. An arbitrageur efficiently allocates inference budget across providers to undercut the market, thus creating a competitive offering with no model-development risk. In this work, we initiate the study of arbitrage in AI model markets, empirically demonstrating the viability of arbitrage and illustrating its economic consequences. We conduct an in-depth case study of SWE-bench GitHub issue resolution using two representative models, GPT-5 mini and DeepSeek v3.2. In this verifiable domain, simple arbitrage strategies generate net profit margins of up to 40%. Robust arbitrage strategies that generalize across different domains remain profitable. Distillation further creates strong arbitrage opportunities, potentially at the expense of the teacher model's revenue. Multiple competing arbitrageurs drive down consumer prices, reducing the marginal revenue of model providers. At the same time, arbitrage reduces market segmentation and facilitates market entry for smaller model providers by enabling earlier revenue capture. Our results suggest that arbitrage can be a powerful force in AI model markets with implications for model development, distillation, and deployment.

模型市场套利机制成本优化竞争策略

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