arXiv:2603.22966cs.CLcs.AI2026-03被引 4

让大模型输出答案集合,而非单一结果,提升可靠性。

Set-Valued Prediction for Large Language Models with Feasibility-Aware Coverage Guarantees

  • 用采样响应构建答案集合,确保包含正确答案的概率
  • 发现并量化了覆盖能力的最低风险阈值,无法突破
  • 适合需要高可靠性的问答、生成任务使用

大语言模型生成空间广阔,但传统做法仅报告最可能输出(MLG),忽略了其他有效答案的存在。本文提出一套有保障的集合预测框架,通过有限采样估计严格阈值,构造预测集,使正确答案以指定概率被包含。研究发现,由于采样限制,某些问题无法实现完全覆盖,存在不可逾越的最小可实现风险水平(MRL)。基于此,设计数据驱动校准方法,在可行条件下确保统计有效性。在六个语言生成任务、五种大模型上实验验证了该框架的统计可靠性与预测效率。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Large language models (LLMs) inherently operate over a large generation space, yet conventional usage typically reports the most likely generation (MLG) as a point prediction, which underestimates the model's capability: although the top-ranked response can be incorrect, valid answers may still exist within the broader output space and can potentially be discovered through repeated sampling. This observation motivates moving from point prediction to set-valued prediction, where the model produces a set of candidate responses rather than a single MLG. In this paper, we propose a principled framework for set-valued prediction, which provides feasibility-aware coverage guarantees. We show that, given the finite-sampling nature of LLM generation, coverage is not always achievable: even with multiple samplings, LLMs may fail to yield an acceptable response for certain questions within the sampled candidate set. To address this, we establish a minimum achievable risk level (MRL), below which statistical coverage guarantees cannot be satisfied. Building on this insight, we then develop a data-driven calibration procedure that constructs prediction sets from sampled responses by estimating a rigorous threshold, ensuring that the resulting set contains a correct answer with a desired probability whenever the target risk level is feasible. Extensive experiments on six language generation tasks with five LLMs demonstrate both the statistical validity and the predictive efficiency of our framework.

大模型集合预测可靠性

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