提出新方法让自动驾驶模型真正修正错误,而非靠未来信息‘后悔’过去。
Rectify, Don't Regret: Avoiding Pitfalls of Differentiable Simulation in Trajectory Prediction
- 切断仿真步骤间计算图,阻止未来信息泄露
- 在高重规划频率下碰撞率降低33.24%
- 适合追求真实纠错能力的自动驾驶轨迹预测场景
当前开环轨迹模型在真实自动驾驶中表现不佳,因初始微小偏差会累积成严重误差,导致智能体进入分布外状态。虽有全可微闭环仿真试图解决,但存在捷径学习问题:损失梯度通过诱导的状态输入反向传播,无意中将未来真实轨迹信息直接传入模型先前预测中。模型借此非因果地‘后悔’过往错误,而非学习真正反应式恢复策略。为此,我们提出分离式滚动时域推演:显式切断仿真步之间的计算图,迫使模型从漂移状态中学习真实恢复行为,实现‘修正’而非非因果优化过去预测。在nuScenes和DeepScenario数据集上的大量评估表明,该方法生成更鲁棒的恢复策略,在高重规划频率下相比全可微闭环训练减少33.24%目标碰撞;相较于标准开环基线,在密集环境中碰撞率降低27.74%,同时提升多模态预测多样性与车道对齐性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Current open-loop trajectory models struggle in real-world autonomous driving because minor initial deviations often cascade into compounding errors, pushing the agent into out-of-distribution states. While fully differentiable closed-loop simulators attempt to address this, they suffer from shortcut learning: the loss gradients flow backward through induced state inputs, inadvertently leaking future ground truth information directly into the model's own previous predictions. The model exploits these signals to artificially avoid drift, non-causally "regretting" past mistakes rather than learning genuinely reactive recovery. To address this, we introduce a detached receding horizon rollout. By explicitly severing the computation graph between simulation steps, the model learns genuine recovery behaviors from drifted states, forcing it to "rectify" mistakes rather than non-causally optimizing past predictions. Extensive evaluations on the nuScenes and DeepScenario datasets show our approach yields more robust recovery strategies, reducing target collisions by up to 33.24% compared to fully differentiable closed-loop training at high replanning frequencies. Furthermore, compared to standard open-loop baselines, our non-differentiable framework decreases collisions by up to 27.74% in dense environments while simultaneously improving multi-modal prediction diversity and lane alignment.
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