arXiv:2603.23736stat.MLcs.LG2026-03被引 1

用最优传输理论预测概率分布随时间演化,支持因果推断与数据修正。

Wasserstein Parallel Transport for Predicting the Dynamics of Statistical Systems

  • 基于最优传输路径的平行传输机制建模分布动态演化
  • 首次在Wasserstein空间提供平行传输的理论保证与高效近似方法
  • 适用于单细胞测序等生物系统中基因表达动态的反事实推断

许多科学系统(如细胞群体或经济群体)自然由随时间演化的概率分布描述。预测系统在不同外力或初始条件下的演化,对因果推断、领域自适应和反事实预测至关重要。然而,分布空间通常不具备经典方法依赖的向量空间结构。为此,我们提出分布层面的平行动态概念,基于沿最优传输测地线的切向动态平行传输,称为「Wasserstein Parallel Trends」。通过用测地线平行传输替代传统向量差分,可在因果推断、领域自适应及实验批效应校正中实现分布动态的反事实比较。主要数学贡献是引入Wasserstein流形上的新发散方案,实现测地线平行传输的高效近似,并首次给出Wasserstein空间中平行传输的理论保证。该方法可还原经典平均值平行趋势假设为特例,并导出高斯分布的闭式平行传输解。我们在合成数据及两个单细胞RNA测序数据集上应用该方法,实现跨生物系统的基因表达动态推断。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Many scientific systems, such as cellular populations or economic cohorts, are naturally described by probability distributions that evolve over time. Predicting how such a system would have evolved under different forces or initial conditions is fundamental to causal inference, domain adaptation, and counterfactual prediction. However, the space of distributions often lacks the vector space structure on which classical methods rely. To address this, we introduce a general notion of parallel dynamics at a distributional level. We base this principle on parallel transport of tangent dynamics along optimal transport geodesics and call it ``Wasserstein Parallel Trends''. By replacing the vector subtraction of classic methods with geodesic parallel transport, we can provide counterfactual comparisons of distributional dynamics in applications such as causal inference, domain adaptation, and batch-effect correction in experimental settings. The main mathematical contribution is a novel notion of fanning scheme on the Wasserstein manifold that allows us to efficiently approximate parallel transport along geodesics while also providing the first theoretical guarantees for parallel transport in the Wasserstein space. We also show that Wasserstein Parallel Trends recovers the classic parallel trends assumption for averages as a special case and derive closed-form parallel transport for Gaussian measures. We deploy the method on synthetic data and two single-cell RNA sequencing datasets to impute gene-expression dynamics across biological systems.

分布演化最优传输因果推断单细胞测序

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