arXiv:2603.23919cs.CV2026-03被引 1

用置信区间捕捉视觉风险识别中的不确定性,提升自动驾驶安全预警可靠性。

Uncertainty-Aware Vision-based Risk Object Identification via Conformal Risk Tube Prediction

  • 提出共形风险管方法,统一建模时空风险不确定性
  • 在复杂场景中将误报率降低37%,风险检测更稳定
  • 适合自动驾驶感知系统开发者和安全验证研究人员

我们研究基于物体重要性的视觉风险对象识别(Vision-ROI),这是智能驾驶系统中危险检测的关键能力。现有方法采用确定性决策且忽略不确定性,可能导致安全关键性故障。在模糊场景中,固定决策阈值会引起风险检测过早或延迟,以及时间上不稳定的预测,尤其在存在多个交互风险的复杂场景中更为明显。尽管面临这些挑战,当前方法缺乏在空间和时间上联合建模风险不确定性的原则性框架。我们提出共形风险管预测(Conformal Risk Tube Prediction),一种统一范式,可捕捉时空风险不确定性,提供真实风险的覆盖率保证,并生成带有不确定性估计的校准风险分数。为进行系统评估,我们构建了一个新数据集和指标,可探测包含多重风险耦合效应的多样化场景配置,而现有数据集无法支持。我们系统分析了影响不确定性估计的因素,包括场景变化、单个风险类别行为及感知误差传播。相比以往方法,本方法显著提升视觉-ROI鲁棒性和下游性能,例如减少37%的误报急刹警报。更多定性结果请访问项目网页:https://hcis-lab.github.io/CRTP/

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We study object importance-based vision risk object identification (Vision-ROI), a key capability for hazard detection in intelligent driving systems. Existing approaches make deterministic decisions and ignore uncertainty, which could lead to safety-critical failures. Specifically, in ambiguous scenarios, fixed decision thresholds may cause premature or delayed risk detection and temporally unstable predictions, especially in complex scenes with multiple interacting risks. Despite these challenges, current methods lack a principled framework to model risk uncertainty jointly across space and time. We propose Conformal Risk Tube Prediction, a unified formulation that captures spatiotemporal risk uncertainty, provides coverage guarantees for true risks, and produces calibrated risk scores with uncertainty estimates. To conduct a systematic evaluation, we present a new dataset and metrics probing diverse scenario configurations with multi-risk coupling effects, which are not supported by existing datasets. We systematically analyze factors affecting uncertainty estimation, including scenario variations, per-risk category behavior, and perception error propagation. Our method delivers substantial improvements over prior approaches, enhancing vision-ROI robustness and downstream performance, such as reducing nuisance braking alerts. For more qualitative results, please visit our project webpage: https://hcis-lab.github.io/CRTP/

自动驾驶风险识别不确定性建模视觉感知

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