arXiv:2603.25068cs.MAcs.LG2026-03被引 1

让交通仿真可微分,实现分钟级实时交通预测与调控。

Ultra-fast Traffic Nowcasting and Control via Differentiable Agent-based Simulation

  • 构建可微分的车辆级仿真模型,支持梯度优化
  • 芝加哥路网万车级仿真达173倍实时速度,30分钟数据455秒完成校准
  • 全程闭环仅需20分钟,适合城市交通实时决策

交通数字孪生通过大规模高保真计算模型为政策制定者提供有效干预依据,在快速城市化背景下具有重要价值。然而传统细粒度交通仿真不可微,依赖低效无梯度优化,难以实现实时应用。本文提出一种可微分的基于代理的交通仿真器,实现超快模型校准、交通即时预测与控制。我们开发了多种可微计算技术,模拟个体车辆行为及交互,确保整个仿真轨迹端到端可微,支持高效梯度优化。在包含超过10,000个校准参数的大规模芝加哥道路网络上,模型以173倍实时速度模拟超百万辆车辆。结合高效梯度优化,仅用455秒完成过去30分钟数据的校准,21秒生成一小时后交通预测,728秒求解交通控制问题。全流程校准-预测-控制闭环耗时不足20分钟,留出约40分钟用于实施干预。本工作为实现交通数字孪生提供了实用计算基础。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Traffic digital twins, which inform policymakers of effective interventions based on large-scale, high-fidelity computational models calibrated to real-world traffic, hold promise for addressing societal challenges in our rapidly urbanizing world. However, conventional fine-grained traffic simulations are non-differentiable and typically rely on inefficient gradient-free optimization, making calibration for real-world applications computationally infeasible. Here we present a differentiable agent-based traffic simulator that enables ultra-fast model calibration, traffic nowcasting, and control on large-scale networks. We develop several differentiable computing techniques for simulating individual vehicle movements, including stochastic decision-making and inter-agent interactions, while ensuring that entire simulation trajectories remain end-to-end differentiable for efficient gradient-based optimization. On the large-scale Chicago road network, with over 10,000 calibration parameters, our model simulates more than one million vehicles at 173 times real-time speed. This ultra-fast simulation, together with efficient gradient-based optimization, enables us to complete model calibration using the previous 30 minutes of traffic data in 455 s, provide a one-hour-ahead traffic nowcast in 21 s, and solve the resulting traffic control problem in 728 s. This yields a full calibration--nowcast--control loop in under 20 minutes, leaving about 40 minutes of lead time for implementing interventions. Our work thus provides a practical computational basis for realizing traffic digital twins.

交通仿真可微分数字孪生实时控制

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。