arXiv:2603.25093cs.LG2026-03

将水文过程约束嵌入神经网络,提升降雨-径流模型的准确性与可解释性

Process-Aware AI for Rainfall-Runoff Modeling: A Mass-Conserving Neural Framework with Hydrological Process Constraints

  • 在神经元中逐步加入土壤储水、导水率、渗透能力等水文物理机制
  • 在15个流域测试中,改进后的模型预测精度接近LSTM基准
  • 适用于需要可解释性的水文建模场景,尤其适合干旱和积雪区域

机器学习模型在水文应用中虽具高预测精度,但常缺乏物理可解释性。质量守恒感知器(MCP)提供了一种融合物理规律的人工智能框架,可在保证质量守恒的同时,从数据中学习水文过程关系。本研究探索在单一MCP储水单元中逐级引入边界土壤储水、状态依赖导水率、可变孔隙度、入渗能力、地表蓄水、垂直排水及非线性地下水位动态等物理表示,如何提升降雨-径流建模的预测性能与可解释性。通过在美利坚合众国五个水文气候区的15个流域上进行日尺度流量预测评估,结果表明:逐步增强MCP内部物理结构通常能提高预测表现。这些物理表示的影响具有强气候依赖性:垂直排水在干旱和积雪主导流域显著提升模型性能,但在降雨主导区域反而降低表现;地表蓄水影响较小。最优的MCP配置在预测精度上接近长短期记忆(LSTM)基准,同时保持明确的物理可解释性。研究证明,在人工智能架构中嵌入水文过程约束,是实现可解释且过程感知的降雨-径流建模的可行路径。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Machine learning models can achieve high predictive accuracy in hydrological applications but often lack physical interpretability. The Mass-Conserving Perceptron (MCP) provides a physics-aware artificial intelligence (AI) framework that enforces conservation principles while allowing hydrological process relationships to be learned from data. In this study, we investigate how progressively embedding physically meaningful representations of hydrological processes within a single MCP storage unit improves predictive skill and interpretability in rainfall-runoff modeling. Starting from a minimal MCP formulation, we sequentially introduce bounded soil storage, state-dependent conductivity, variable porosity, infiltration capacity, surface ponding, vertical drainage, and nonlinear water-table dynamics. The resulting hierarchy of process-aware MCP models is evaluated across 15 catchments spanning five hydroclimatic regions of the continental United States using daily streamflow prediction as the target. Results show that progressively augmenting the internal physical structure of the MCP unit generally improves predictive performance. The influence of these process representations is strongly hydroclimate dependent: vertical drainage substantially improves model skill in arid and snow-dominated basins but reduces performance in rainfall-dominated regions, while surface ponding has comparatively small effects. The best-performing MCP configurations approach the predictive skill of a Long Short-Term Memory benchmark while maintaining explicit physical interpretability. These results demonstrate that embedding hydrological process constraints within AI architectures provides a promising pathway toward interpretable and process-aware rainfall-runoff modeling.

水文建模神经网络物理约束可解释性

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