arXiv:2603.25597cs.LGnlin.AO2026-03

用掩码自编码器预测不规则时间步的时空系统,无需补全数据。

Spatiotemporal System Forecasting with Irregular Time Steps via Masked Autoencoder

  • 结合卷积与掩码自编码器,通过注意力机制一次性重建完整物理序列。
  • 在模拟数据和真实海洋温度数据上,精度和鲁棒性显著优于传统方法。
  • 适合气候、流体、海洋等无需领域知识的复杂时空建模任务。

高维动态系统在不规则时间步下的预测对当前数据驱动算法构成重大挑战,此类不规则性源于缺失数据、稀疏观测或自适应计算技术,导致预测精度下降。为此,我们提出一种新方法:物理-时空掩码自编码器。该方法融合卷积自编码器进行空间特征提取,以及针对不规则时间序列优化的掩码自编码器,利用注意力机制在单次预测中重建整个物理序列,避免数据插补并保持系统物理一致性。此处的‘物理’指由底层动力系统生成的高维场,而非显式施加物理约束或偏微分方程残差。我们在多个模拟数据集和真实海洋温度数据上评估该方法,结果表明,相比传统卷积与循环网络方法,本模型在预测精度、非线性鲁棒性及计算效率方面均有显著提升。模型展现出无需领域知识即可捕捉复杂时空模式的潜力,适用于气候建模、流体动力学、海洋预报、环境监测与科学计算等领域。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Predicting high-dimensional dynamical systems with irregular time steps presents significant challenges for current data-driven algorithms. These irregularities arise from missing data, sparse observations, or adaptive computational techniques, reducing prediction accuracy. To address these limitations, we propose a novel method: a Physics-Spatiotemporal Masked Autoencoder. This method integrates convolutional autoencoders for spatial feature extraction with masked autoencoders optimised for irregular time series, leveraging attention mechanisms to reconstruct the entire physical sequence in a single prediction pass. The model avoids the need for data imputation while preserving physical integrity of the system. Here, 'physics' refers to high-dimensional fields generated by underlying dynamical systems, rather than the enforcement of explicit physical constraints or PDE residuals. We evaluate this approach on multiple simulated datasets and real-world ocean temperature data. The results demonstrate that our method achieves significant improvements in prediction accuracy, robustness to nonlinearities, and computational efficiency over traditional convolutional and recurrent network methods. The model shows potential for capturing complex spatiotemporal patterns without requiring domain-specific knowledge, with applications in climate modelling, fluid dynamics, ocean forecasting, environmental monitoring, and scientific computing.

时空预测掩码自编码器不规则时间气候建模

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