通过自动提取关键气象特征,提升短时降水预测精度与效率。
Accurate Precipitation Forecast by Efficiently Learning from Massive Atmospheric Variables and Unbalanced Distribution
- 自动提取与降水演变强相关的潜在特征并迭代预测
- 在两个数据集上显著优于现有基线模型,且计算成本更低
- 适合需要高效精准降水预报的气象与应急领域
短时(0-24小时)降水预报对社会经济活动和公共安全具有重要意义。然而,降水事件演化模式高度复杂,降水与非降水样本极端不平衡,且现有模型难以高效利用多源大气观测数据,制约了预报精度与计算效率的提升。为此,本文提出一种新型预报模型,能够自动提取并迭代预测与降水演变强相关的潜在特征,有效利用海量大气观测数据。同时引入一种'WMCE'损失函数,精准区分极稀少的降水事件并精确预测其强度。在两个数据集上的大量实验表明,所提模型在准确性和效率方面均显著优于所有主流基线模型。此外,该模型大幅降低获取高价值预报所需的计算成本,为高效、实用的降水预报树立新里程碑。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Short-term (0-24 hours) precipitation forecasting is highly valuable to socioeconomic activities and public safety. However, the highly complex evolution patterns of precipitation events, the extreme imbalance between precipitation and non-precipitation samples, and the inability of existing models to efficiently and effectively utilize large volumes of multi-source atmospheric observation data hinder improvements in precipitation forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency. To address the above challenges, this study developed a novel forecasting model capable of effectively and efficiently utilizing massive atmospheric observations by automatically extracting and iteratively predicting the latent features strongly associated with precipitation evolution. Furthermore, this study introduces a 'WMCE' loss function, designed to accurately discriminate extremely scarce precipitation events while precisely predicting their intensity values. Extensive experiments on two datasets demonstrate that our proposed model substantially and consistently outperforms all prevalent baselines in both accuracy and efficiency. Moreover, the proposed forecasting model substantially lowers the computational cost required to obtain valuable predictions compared to existing approaches, thereby positioning it as a milestone for efficient and practical precipitation forecasting.
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