用贝叶斯方法改进时间序列缺失值填补,更准确还带不确定性评估。
tBayes-MICE: A Bayesian Approach to Multiple Imputation for Time Series Data
- 基于贝叶斯框架与MCMC采样,融合时间依赖特征和初始状态。
- 在空气质量与生理监测数据上,误差低于基线方法,且能量化不确定性。
- 适合医疗、环境等需可信填补结果的场景,尤其关注不确定性分析者。
时间序列分析常受缺失数据影响,广泛存在于医疗和环境监测等领域。多重插补通过链式方程(MICE)实现,但其参数与插补值的不确定性未被充分建模。本文提出tBayes-MICE,基于贝叶斯框架,利用马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛(MCMC)采样来刻画模型参数与插补值的不确定性。引入时序初始化与滞后特征以尊重时间序列的顺序特性。在AirQuality与PhysioNet两个真实数据集上,使用随机游走梅特罗波利斯(RWM)和修正兰甘算法(MALA)进行评估。结果表明,tBayes-MICE在所有变量上均降低插补误差,并有效量化不确定性;其中MALA相比RWM混合效果更好,精度相当但后验探索更稳定。整体显示该方法在环境与临床场景中兼具准确性与不确定性表达能力,是一种实用高效的时序数据填补方案。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Time-series analysis is often affected by missing data, a common problem across several fields, including healthcare and environmental monitoring. Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE) has been prominent for imputing missing values through "fully conditional specification". We extend MICE using the Bayesian framework (tBayes-MICE), utilising Bayesian inference to impute missing values via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling to account for uncertainty in MICE model parameters and imputed values. We also include temporally informed initialisation and time-lagged features in the model to respect the sequential nature of time-series data. We evaluate the tBayes-MICE method using two real-world datasets (AirQuality and PhysioNet), and using both the Random Walk Metropolis (RWM) and the Metropolis-Adjusted Langevin Algorithm (MALA) samplers. Our results demonstrate that tBayes-MICE reduces imputation errors relative to the baseline methods over all variables and accounts for uncertainty in the imputation process, thereby providing a more accurate measure of imputation error. We also found that MALA mixed better than RWM across most variables, achieving comparable accuracy while providing more consistent posterior exploration. Overall, these findings suggest that the tBayes-MICE framework represents a practical and efficient approach to time-series imputation, balancing increased accuracy with meaningful quantification of uncertainty in various environmental and clinical settings.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。