arXiv:2603.27159cs.LGcs.SY2026-03

在线学习未知模型的卡尔曼滤波,统一解决输出与状态估计问题。

Online Learning of Kalman Filtering: From Output to State Estimation

  • 基于在线优化框架,统一处理输出与状态估计
  • 输出估计实现log T- regret,状态估计可达√T- regret
  • 揭示查询次数与误差间的权衡,适合受限观测场景

本文研究在部分可观测线性动态系统中,系统模型未知时的卡尔曼滤波在线学习问题。提出一种基于在线优化的统一算法框架,适用于输出估计和状态估计两种情形。通过分析估计误差代价函数的条件强凸性,证明在输出估计场景下算法达到关于时域长度T的log T- regret。更重要的是,解决了文献中长期未解的状态估计学习难题:首次揭示任意算法均无法在T上实现次线性悔悟(sublinear regret)的根本限制。通过引入随机查询机制,当算法仅能有限访问更丰富状态测量时,可实现√T- regret。该算法与悔悟界直观捕捉了查询次数与误差之间的权衡,为有限观测下的在线学习问题提供新视角。数值实验验证了算法性能。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In this paper, we study the problem of learning Kalman filtering with unknown system model in partially observed linear dynamical systems. We propose a unified algorithmic framework based on online optimization that can be used to solve both the output estimation and state estimation scenarios. By exploring the properties of the estimation error cost functions, such as conditionally strong convexity, we show that our algorithm achieves a $\log T$-regret in the horizon length $T$ for the output estimation scenario. More importantly, we tackle the more challenging scenario of learning Kalman filtering for state estimation, which is an open problem in the literature. We first characterize a fundamental limitation of the problem, demonstrating the impossibility of any algorithm to achieve sublinear regret in $T$. By further introducing a random query scheme into our algorithm, we show that a $\sqrt{T}$-regret is achievable when rendering the algorithm limited query access to more informative measurements of the system state in practice. Our algorithm and regret readily capture the trade-off between the number of queries and the achieved regret, and shed light on online learning problems with limited observations. We validate the performance of our algorithms using numerical examples.

卡尔曼滤波在线学习状态估计优化

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