arXiv:2603.27288physics.ao-phcs.LG2026-03

用可变分辨率网格实现全球-区域协同气象预测,兼顾精度与计算成本。

StretchCast: Global-Regional AI Weather Forecasting on Stretched Cubed-Sphere Mesh

  • 基于拉伸立方球面网格,聚焦目标区域提升分辨率,保持全球闭合域
  • 7776个网格点下2300万参数模型稳定输出多变量预报,8300万参数模型实现中程预报竞争力
  • 适合需要区域精细化且算力有限的气象AI研究者使用

全球人工智能气象预报仍主要依赖均匀分辨率模型,难以兼顾区域精细化、双向区域-全球耦合以及可承受的训练成本。我们提出StretchCast,一种基于可变分辨率拉伸立方球面(SCS)网格的全球-区域AI预报框架,在保持全局闭合域的同时,将高分辨率集中于目标区域。在此框架内,我们开发了一步预测器SCS_Base模型和面向滚动预测的多步预测器SCS_FCST4模型,以验证基于SCS的预报可行性及联合多步训练的优势。实验采用1998–2022年ERA5数据集,包含69个变量。由于训练算力受限,本研究采用粗分辨率概念验证配置:全局仅约7,776个有效网格点,中心区域分辨率约为0.875度。2300万参数的SCS_Base模型即可实现稳定多变量预报;8300万参数的SCS_FCST4模型在统一重投影后,对目标区域的中程异常相关演变表现具有竞争力,尤其在位势高度、比湿及部分低对流层风场方面表现优异,同时保持跨面连续性和平滑的多尺度结构,台风和谱分析结果真实可信。这些结果表明StretchCast是全球-区域AI气象预报的一个实用轻量级基础。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Global AI weather forecasting still relies mainly on uniform-resolution models, making it hard to combine regional refinement, two-way regional-global coupling, and affordable training cost. We introduce StretchCast, a global-regional AI forecasting framework built on a variable-resolution stretched cubed-sphere (SCS) mesh that preserves a closed global domain while concentrating resolution over a target region. Within this framework, we develop a one-step predictor, SCS_Base Model, and a rollout-oriented multistep predictor, SCS_FCST4 Model, to test the feasibility of SCS-based forecasting and the benefit of joint multistep training. Experiments use ERA5 with 69 variables over 1998-2022. Because training compute remains limited, this study uses a coarse-resolution proof-of-concept configuration rather than a final high-resolution system. Even with only about 7,776 effective global grid cells and roughly 0.875 degree resolution over the center-refined face, the 23M-parameter SCS_Base Model yields stable multivariate forecasts. With 83M parameters and training cost on the order of hours, SCS_FCST4 Model delivers competitive medium-range anomaly-correlation evolution over the target region after unified reprojection, especially for geopotential height, specific humidity, and part of the lower-tropospheric winds, while maintaining smooth cross-face continuity and realistic multiscale structure in typhoon and spectral analyses. These results support StretchCast as a practical lightweight foundation for global-regional AI weather forecasting.

气象预测可变网格AI建模区域聚焦

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