通过追踪数据解析传球对防守结构的影响，揭示四类关键传球模式。
Structural Pass Analysis in Football: Learning Pass Archetypes and Tactical Impact from Spatio-Temporal Tracking Data
- 基于防守结构变化设计三类量化指标，融合为战术影响值TIV。
- 高TIV传球显著提升进入终场区和禁区的概率，效果显著。
- 识别出团队与球员层面的结构性传球风格，适合战术分析者使用。
随着时空追踪数据的普及，足球战术行为分析迎来新机遇。然而，现有方法多依赖结果指标（如进球概率或控球价值），难以揭示传球对对手防守组织的影响。本文提出一种基于传球与防守结构互动的分析框架，利用同步追踪与事件数据，构建线绕过得分、空间增益和结构破坏指数三项互补指标，综合为战术影响值（TIV），量化传球对防守布局的改变。基于2022年世界杯数据，对多个战术层面进行分析，无监督聚类发现四类可解释的传球类型：循环型、扰动型、破线型与扩空型。实证显示，高TIV传球显著更可能引发阵地推进，尤其在进入终场区和禁区时。空间与团队级分析揭示不同球队的结构性传球风格；球员级分析表明后场组织者是推动结构进展的关键。此外，传球搭档间的结构协同效应被识别，强化了团队战术推进。结果表明，从追踪数据中提取的结构表征能有效揭示可解释的足球战术模式。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The increasing availability of spatio-temporal tracking data has created new opportunities for analysing tactical behaviour in football. However, many existing approaches evaluate passes primarily through outcome-based metrics such as scoring probability or possession value, providing limited insight into how passes influence the defensive organisation of the opponent. This paper introduces a structural framework for analysing football passes based on their interaction with defensive structure. Using synchronised tracking/event data, we derive three complementary structural metrics, Line Bypass Score, Space Gain Metric, and Structural Disruption Index, that quantify how passes alter the spatial configuration of defenders. These metrics are combined into a composite measure termed Tactical Impact Value (TIV), which captures the structural influence of individual passes. Using tracking and event data from the 2022 FIFA World Cup, we analyse structural passing behaviour across multiple tactical levels. Unsupervised clustering of structural features reveals four interpretable pass archetypes: circulatory, destabilising, line-breaking, and space-expanding passes. Empirical results show that passes with higher TIV are significantly more likely to lead to territorial progression, particularly entries into the final third and penalty box. Spatial, team-level analyses further reveal distinctive structural passing styles across teams, while player-level analysis highlights the role of build-up defenders as key drivers of structural progression. In addition, analysing passer-receiver interactions identifies structurally impactful passing partnerships that amplify tactical progression within teams. Overall, the proposed framework demonstrates how structural representations derived from tracking data can reveal interpretable tactical patterns in football.
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