arXiv:2603.29033cs.LGphysics.pop-ph2026-03中稿 · Acta Prima Aprilia…

用机器学习验证星座性格预测,发现其实随机得像猜谜。

From Astronomy to Astrology: Testing the Illusion of Zodiac-Based Personality Prediction with Machine Learning

  • 构造含100个人格特质的虚拟数据集,星座仅分配10个重叠描述
  • 三种模型预测准确率均接近随机水平(约50%)
  • 适合对认知偏见或伪科学批判感兴趣的读者

占星术长期被用于解读人格、评估匹配度并指导社会决策。尤其是星座系统,在全球多地(包括南亚)仍具文化影响力,影响婚配、命名、仪式时机与人生规划。然而,占星术既无物理可解释机制,也缺乏统计可靠性。本文构建合成数据集:个体从100项通用人格特质中随机分配特质,每类星座仅关联10个常见描述,且与其他星座高度重叠,以模拟真实占星系统的模糊性。随后训练逻辑回归、随机森林与神经网络模型,尝试从星座特征及干扰变量中预测人格标签。所有实验中,模型表现均接近随机预期(约50%),而打乱标签的对照组结果相近。我们推断占星术的‘成功’并非源于实际预测结构,而是源自特质普遍性、类别重叠、巴纳姆效应和确认偏误,以及占星师的解释灵活性。结论是:星座系统无法可靠预测行为,仅作为文化持久的叙事框架存在。本文为一场幽默的学术实验。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Astrology has long been used to interpret human personality, estimate compatibility, and guide social decision-making. Zodiac-based systems in particular remain culturally influential across much of the world, including in South Asian societies where astrological reasoning can shape marriage matching, naming conventions, ritual timing, and broader life planning. Despite this persistence, astrology has never established either a physically plausible mechanism or a statistically reliable predictive foundation. In this work, we examine zodiac-based personality prediction using a controlled machine-learning framework. We construct a synthetic dataset in which individuals are assigned zodiac signs and personality labels drawn from a shared pool of 100 broadly human traits. Each sign is associated with a subset of 10 common descriptors, intentionally overlapping with those assigned to other signs, thereby reproducing the ambiguity characteristic of practical astrological systems. We then train Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and neural-network classifiers to infer personality labels from zodiac-based features and nuisance covariates. Across all experiments, predictive performance remains at or near random expectation, while shuffled-label controls yield comparable accuracies. We argue that the apparent success of astrology arises not from measurable predictive structure, but from trait universality, category overlap, cognitive biases such as the Barnum effect and confirmation bias, and the interpretive flexibility of astrologers and pundits. We conclude that zodiac-based systems do not provide reliable information for predicting human behavior and instead function as culturally durable narrative frameworks. This paper is intended as a humorous academic exercise.

占星术机器学习认知偏见伪科学

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