arXiv:2603.29176q-bio.NCcs.AI2026-03

用虚拟脑模型预测帕金森病治疗效果,准确率超90%。

Predicting Neuromodulation Outcome for Parkinson's Disease with Generative Virtual Brain Model

论文配图:Predicting Neuromodulation Outcome for Parkinson's Disease with Generative Virtual Brain Model
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于大规模fMRI数据训练生成式虚拟脑模型,个性化建模功能连接。
  • 对TI和DBS治疗响应预测的AUPR分别达0.853和0.915,显著优于基线。
  • 可揭示治疗响应的神经机制,适合临床转化与机制研究者使用。

帕金森病影响全球超千万人。尽管经颅干扰(TI)和深部脑刺激(DBS)是潜在疗法,但个体差异导致治疗选择困难,增加手术风险与成本。以往方法或依赖有限生物标志物,或采用易过拟合、不透明的AI模型。本文提出预训练-微调框架,直接从静息态fMRI预测治疗结果。关键在于,一个在2707名受试者、5621次扫描的大型数据集上预训练的生成式虚拟脑基础模型,经帕金森病队列(TI组n=51,DBS组n=55)微调后,生成高保真个体化虚拟脑,其功能连接与实测数据相关性达r=0.935。通过构建病理与健康状态间的反事实估计,成功预测临床响应(TI:AUPR=0.853;DBS:AUPR=0.915),显著优于基线。外部及前瞻性验证(n=14,n=11)证明其临床转化可行性。此外,框架揭示了与响应相关的状态依赖区域模式,提供可生成假说的机制洞察。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Parkinson's disease (PD) affects over ten million people worldwide. Although temporal interference (TI) and deep brain stimulation (DBS) are promising therapies, inter-individual variability limits empirical treatment selection, increasing non-negligible surgical risk and cost. Previous explorations either resort to limited statistical biomarkers that are insufficient to characterize variability, or employ AI-driven methods which is prone to overfitting and opacity. We bridge this gap with a pretraining-finetuning framework to predict outcomes directly from resting-state fMRI. Critically, a generative virtual brain foundation model, pretrained on a collective dataset (2707 subjects, 5621 sessions) to capture universal disorder patterns, was finetuned on PD cohorts receiving TI (n=51) or DBS (n=55) to yield individualized virtual brains with high fidelity to empirical functional connectivity (r=0.935). By constructing counterfactual estimations between pathological and healthy neural states within these personalized models, we predicted clinical responses (TI: AUPR=0.853; DBS: AUPR=0.915), substantially outperforming baselines. External and prospective validations (n=14, n=11) highlight the feasibility of clinical translation. Moreover, our framework provides state-dependent regional patterns linked to response, offering hypothesis-generating mechanistic insights.

帕金森病虚拟脑fMRI精准医疗

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