arXiv:2603.29200cs.LGcs.AI2026-03

融合大气海洋地形数据,提升台风异常路径预测精度。

Improving Ensemble Forecasts of Abnormally Deflecting Tropical Cyclones with Fused Atmosphere-Ocean-Terrain Data

  • 构建多源异构的AOT-TCs数据集,整合大气、海洋与地形信息。
  • 模型在2017–2024年西北太平洋台风数据上实现领先性能。
  • 首个显式耦合三域物理机制的台风预报模型,适合复杂路径研究者。

基于深度学习的台风(TC)预报方法展现出显著潜力与应用优势,其计算成本远低于数值天气预报模型且运行速度更快。然而现有深度学习方法仍存在关键局限:仅能处理单一类型的时间序列轨迹或同质气象变量,难以准确预测异常偏移的台风。为解决此问题,本文提出两项突破性贡献。首先,构建首个面向西北太平洋台风预报的多模态、多源数据集AOT-TCs,创新性融合大气、海洋与陆地的异质变量,形成信息丰富的综合气象数据集。其次,基于该数据集,提出可同时处理正常与异常偏移台风的预报模型。这是首个采用显式大气-海洋-地形耦合架构的台风预报模型,能够有效捕捉跨物理域的复杂交互作用。在2017至2024年西北太平洋全部台风案例上的大量实验表明,该模型不仅显著提升正常台风的预报精度,更突破了异常偏移台风预报的技术瓶颈,达到当前最优水平。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Deep learning-based tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting methods have demonstrated significant potential and application advantages, as they feature much lower computational cost and faster operation speed than numerical weather prediction models. However, existing deep learning methods still have key limitations: they can only process a single type of sequential trajectory data or homogeneous meteorological variables, and fail to achieve accurate forecasting of abnormal deflected TCs. To address these challenges, we present two groundbreaking contributions. First, we have constructed a multimodal and multi-source dataset named AOT-TCs for TC forecasting in the Northwest Pacific basin. As the first dataset of its kind, it innovatively integrates heterogeneous variables from the atmosphere, ocean, and land, thus obtaining a comprehensive and information-rich meteorological dataset. Second, based on the AOT-TCs dataset, we propose a forecasting model that can handle both normal and abnormally deflected TCs. This is the first TC forecasting model to adopt an explicit atmosphere-ocean-terrain coupling architecture, enabling it to effectively capture complex interactions across physical domains. Extensive experiments on all TC cases in the Northwest Pacific from 2017 to 2024 show that our model achieves state-of-the-art performance in TC forecasting: it not only significantly improves the forecasting accuracy of normal TCs but also breaks through the technical bottleneck in forecasting abnormally deflected TCs.

台风预报多源数据深度学习异常路径

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