用AI模型替代耗时仿真,实现微电网实时动态预测。
Real-Time Surrogate Modeling for Fast Transient Prediction in Inverter-Based Microgrids Using CNN and LightGBM
- 结合CNN与LightGBM,用滑动窗口预测电压、频率等关键变量。
- 轻量模型提速千倍以上,支持实时与超实时运行。
- 适合电力系统监控、故障分析与控制场景。
实时监测基于逆变器的微电网对稳定性、故障响应和运行决策至关重要。然而,捕捉快速逆变器动态所需的电磁暂态(EMT)仿真计算量大,不适用于实时应用。本文提出一种数据驱动的代理建模框架,利用卷积神经网络(CNN)和轻量梯度提升机(LightGBM),基于包含十台分布式发电机的微电网高保真EMT数字孪生数据集进行训练,覆盖十一类运行与扰动场景,包括故障、噪声和通信延迟。采用滑动窗口方法预测电压幅值、频率、总有功功率及电压跌落等关键系统变量。结果表明,不同变量预测性能各异:CNN对时序信号如电压表现优异,$R^2$达0.84;LightGBM在结构化与扰动相关变量上更优,频率$R^2$达0.999,电压跌落$R^2$为0.75。混合CNN+LightGBM模型在所有变量上均表现稳定。在效率方面,LightGBM实现超过1000倍加速,运行速度超过实时;混合模型实现500倍以上加速,接近实时性能。结果表明,数据驱动代理模型可有效表征微电网动态,支持实时与超实时预测,适用于监测、故障分析与控制等应用场景。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Real-time monitoring of inverter-based microgrids is essential for stability, fault response, and operational decision-making. However, electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulations, required to capture fast inverter dynamics, are computationally intensive and unsuitable for real-time applications. This paper presents a data-driven surrogate modeling framework for fast prediction of microgrid behavior using convolutional neural networks (CNN) and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM). The models are trained on a high-fidelity EMT digital twin dataset of a microgrid with ten distributed generators under eleven operating and disturbance scenarios, including faults, noise, and communication delays. A sliding-window method is applied to predict important system variables, including voltage magnitude, frequency, total active power, and voltage dip. The results show that model performance changes depending on the type of variable being predicted. The CNN demonstrates high accuracy for time-dependent signals such as voltage, with an $R^2$ value of 0.84, whereas LightGBM shows better performance for structured and disturbance-related variables, achieving an $R^2$ of 0.999 for frequency and 0.75 for voltage dip. A combined CNN+LightGBM model delivers stable performance across all variables. Beyond accuracy, the surrogate models also provide major improvements in computational efficiency. LightGBM achieves more than $1000\times$ speedup and runs faster than real time, while the hybrid model achieves over $500\times$ speedup with near real-time performance. These findings show that data-driven surrogate models can effectively represent microgrid dynamics. They also support real-time and faster-than-real-time predictions. As a result, they are well-suited for applications such as monitoring, fault analysis, and control in inverter-based power systems.
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