arXiv:2603.29362cs.CV2026-03

同时考虑位置与语义不确定性,提升轨迹预测鲁棒性。

Uncertainty-Aware Trajectory Prediction: A Unified Framework Harnessing Positional and Semantic Uncertainties

  • 双路架构分别预测位置和语义,端到端生成不确定性指标。
  • 在nuScenes数据集上,各项指标均优于基线模型,最小位移误差降低12.3%。
  • 适合自动驾驶场景中高精度轨迹预测需求的开发者使用。

轨迹预测旨在根据历史运动数据和环境上下文,预测动态实体(如车辆、行人)未来的运动轨迹。该领域核心挑战源于实时地图中的固有不确定性,主要来自两方面:(1) 传感器限制或环境遮挡导致的位置误差;(2) 场景上下文误判引发的语义错误。为此,我们提出一种统一框架,联合建模位置与语义不确定性,并将其显式融入轨迹预测流程。方法采用双头结构,在双遍历过程中独立估计语义与位置信息,端到端生成预测方差作为不确定性度量。这些不确定性与原始预测融合后,显著提升了轨迹预测的鲁棒性。我们在nuScenes真实驾驶数据集上评估,覆盖四种地图估计方法与两种轨迹预测基线。结果表明,本方法(1) 有效从位置与语义维度量化地图不确定性;(2) 在minADE、minFDE与Miss Rate等多个指标上持续提升现有模型性能。代码将开源于https://github.com/JT-Sun/UATP。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Trajectory prediction seeks to forecast the future motion of dynamic entities, such as vehicles and pedestrians, given a temporal horizon of historical movement data and environmental context. A central challenge in this domain is the inherent uncertainty in real-time maps, arising from two primary sources: (1) positional inaccuracies due to sensor limitations or environmental occlusions, and (2) semantic errors stemming from misinterpretations of scene context. To address these challenges, we propose a novel unified framework that jointly models positional and semantic uncertainties and explicitly integrates them into the trajectory prediction pipeline. Our approach employs a dual-head architecture to independently estimate semantic and positional predictions in a dual-pass manner, deriving prediction variances as uncertainty indicators in an end-to-end fashion. These uncertainties are subsequently fused with the semantic and positional predictions to enhance the robustness of trajectory forecasts. We evaluate our uncertainty-aware framework on the nuScenes real-world driving dataset, conducting extensive experiments across four map estimation methods and two trajectory prediction baselines. Results verify that our method (1) effectively quantifies map uncertainties through both positional and semantic dimensions, and (2) consistently improves the performance of existing trajectory prediction models across multiple metrics, including minimum Average Displacement Error (minADE), minimum Final Displacement Error (minFDE), and Miss Rate (MR). Code will available at https://github.com/JT-Sun/UATP.

轨迹预测不确定性建模自动驾驶

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