arXiv:2603.29837cs.LG2026-03

用混合高斯模型补全道路网络的动态交通数据,提升路径规划可靠性。

DiSGMM: A Method for Time-varying Microscopic Weight Completion on Road Networks

  • 基于稀疏嵌入与时空建模,融合已知数据和路段特性补全缺失权重。
  • 在真实数据集上优于现有方法,能准确捕捉重尾和多峰分布特征。
  • 适合交通仿真、智能导航等需高精度动态路况的场景。

微观道路网络权重反映车辆行驶时细粒度的动态交通状况,例如路段通行速度。这类数据支撑交通微观仿真与带可靠保证的路径规划。本文研究时间变化的微观权重补全问题:在一个时间段内,仅有部分路段有可用权重。权重补全旨在恢复当前时刻每个路段的权重分布。该问题面临双重挑战:(i) 网络层稀疏(大量路段无权重)与段层稀疏(单个路段权重不足,难以准确估计分布);(ii) 需构建闭式表达的分布表示,以灵活捕捉复杂条件,包括重尾和多簇特征。为此,提出DiSGMM方法,结合稀疏感知嵌入与时空建模,利用稀疏已知权重、学习到的路段属性及长程相关性进行分布估计。DiSGMM将微观权重分布表示为可学习的高斯混合模型,提供闭式表达,能灵活捕捉复杂交通状态。在两个真实世界数据集上的实验表明,DiSGMM显著优于现有先进方法。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Microscopic road-network weights represent fine-grained, time-varying traffic conditions obtained from individual vehicles. An example is travel speeds associated with road segments as vehicles traverse them. These weights support tasks including traffic microsimulation and vehicle routing with reliability guarantees. We study the problem of time-varying microscopic weight completion. During a time slot, the available weights typically cover only some road segments. Weight completion recovers distributions for the weights of every road segment at the current time slot. This problem involves two challenges: (i) contending with two layers of sparsity, where weights are missing at both the network layer (many road segments lack weights) and the segment layer (a segment may have insufficient weights to enable accurate distribution estimation); and (ii) achieving a weight distribution representation that is closed-form and can capture complex conditions flexibly, including heavy tails and multiple clusters. To address these challenges, we propose DiSGMM that combines sparsity-aware embeddings with spatiotemporal modeling to leverage sparse known weights alongside learned segment properties and long-range correlations for distribution estimation. DiSGMM represents distributions of microscopic weights as learnable Gaussian mixture models, providing closed-form distributions capable of capturing complex conditions flexibly. Experiments on two real-world datasets show that DiSGMM can outperform state-of-the-art methods.

交通预测权重补全高斯混合

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