arXiv:2604.00599cs.LG2026-04

从数据中推断超大规模系统的演化方程,实现可解释且长期可靠的预测。

Predicting Dynamics of Ultra-Large Complex Systems by Inferring Governing Equations

  • 将符号发现转化为边级信息,突破传统方法在规模上的限制。
  • 在超过10万节点的系统上仍能精准恢复方程,对噪声和缺失数据鲁棒。
  • 适用于气候、神经网络等复杂系统,适合需要可解释预测的研究者。

预测从气候到生物与技术网络的超大规模复杂系统行为,是当前核心挑战。现有方法面临根本权衡:方程发现具可解释性但难以扩展;神经网络虽可扩展却为黑箱,长期预测可靠性差。本文提出稀疏识别图神经网络(SIGN),通过将符号发现定义为边级信息,使稀疏识别的可扩展性与网络规模解耦,从而在大型系统中实现高效方程发现。SIGN可在超过10万节点的网络中保持稳健,对噪声、稀疏采样和缺失数据具有鲁棒性。在耦合混沌振子、神经动力学及流行病传播等多种基准系统中,均以高精度恢复了控制方程,并实现准确的长期预测。应用于包含71,987个海表位置温度时间序列的数据集,SIGN成功构建紧凑预测模型,提前两年捕捉大尺度海表温度变化。SIGN使此前无法触及尺度的方程发现成为可能,为真实复杂系统提供可解释且可靠的预测路径。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Predicting the behavior of ultra-large complex systems, from climate to biological and technological networks, is a central unsolved challenge. Existing approaches face a fundamental trade-off: equation discovery methods provide interpretability but fail to scale, while neural networks scale but operate as black boxes and often lose reliability over long times. Here, we introduce the Sparse Identification Graph Neural Network, a framework that overcome this divide by allowing to infer the governing equations of large networked systems from data. By defining symbolic discovery as edge-level information, SIGN decouples the scalability of sparse identification from network size, enabling efficient equation discovery even in large systems. SIGN allows to study networks with over 100,000 nodes while remaining robust to noise, sparse sampling, and missing data. Across diverse benchmark systems, including coupled chaotic oscillators, neural dynamics, and epidemic spreading, it recovers governing equations with high precision and sustains accurate long-term predictions. Applied to a data set of time series of temperature measurements in 71,987 sea surface positions, SIGN identifies a compact predictive network model and captures large-scale sea surface temperature conditions up to two years in advance. By enabling equation discovery at previously inaccessible scales, SIGN opens a path toward interpretable and reliable prediction of real-world complex systems.

方程发现复杂系统图神经网络可解释性

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