arXiv:2604.00632math.DScs.LG2026-04

用神经微分方程建模印度奥里萨邦贫困动态,精准捕捉经济变化轨迹。

Neural Ordinary Differential Equations for Modeling Socio-Economic Dynamics

  • 用多层感知机表示时间梯度,通过数值求解器追踪连续动态变化。
  • 模型在2007–2020年数据上复现精度高,准确捕捉贫困指标演化趋势。
  • 适合政策制定者参考,为减贫决策提供可靠预测工具。

贫困是一种复杂的动态挑战,难以用预设微分方程充分描述。当前,机器学习方法在建模真实世界动态系统方面展现出显著潜力。其中,神经微分方程(Neural ODEs)作为一种数据驱动的方法,可直接从观测中学习连续时间动态。本章将 Neural ODE 框架应用于印度奥里萨邦的贫困动态分析,利用2007至2020年的关键经济发展与减贫指标时间序列数据。在 Neural ODE 架构中,系统的时间梯度由多层感知机(MLP)表示,通过数值微分方程求解器积分获得随时间演化的轨迹。训练过程中采用伴随敏感性方法进行反向传播,实现对求解器的有效梯度传递。训练后的模型以高精度复现了观测数据,表明 Neural ODE 能有效捕捉结构性家庭贫困指标的动态演化。结果表明,如 Neural ODE 等机器学习方法可作为建模社会经济转型的有效工具,为政策制定者提供可靠的未来预测,支持更科学、高效的减贫决策。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Poverty is a complex dynamic challenge that cannot be adequately captured using predefined differential equations. Nowadays, artificial machine learning (ML) methods have demonstrated significant potential in modelling real-world dynamical systems. Among these, Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Neural ODEs) have emerged as a powerful, data-driven approach for learning continuous-time dynamics directly from observations. This chapter applies the Neural ODE framework to analyze poverty dynamics in the Indian state of Odisha. Specifically, we utilize time-series data from 2007 to 2020 on the key indicators of economic development and poverty reduction. Within the Neural ODE architecture, the temporal gradient of the system is represented by a multi-layer perceptron (MLP). The obtained neural dynamical system is integrated using a numerical ODE solver to obtain the trajectory of over time. In backpropagation, the adjoint sensitivity method is utilized for gradient computation during training to facilitate effective backpropagation through the ODE solver. The trained Neural ODE model reproduces the observed data with high accuracy. This demonstrates the capability of Neural ODE to capture the dynamics of the poverty indicator of concrete-structured households. The obtained results show that ML methods, such as Neural ODEs, can serve as effective tools for modeling socioeconomic transitions. It can provide policymakers with reliable projections, supporting more informed and effective decision-making for poverty alleviation.

神经微分方程贫困建模动态系统政策预测

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