用提示词缓解遗忘,实现动态环境下的持续活动预测
Chameleons do not Forget: Prompt-Based Online Continual Learning for Next Activity Prediction
- 引入提示词机制,让模型在新任务中保持旧知识
- 在五个数据集上优于或持平现有方法,显著降低遗忘率
- 适合需要长期适应变化的工业流程监控场景
预测性流程监控(PPM)旨在预测未来的流程轨迹,尤其关注下一活动预测。在动态环境中,流程变化或不确定性普遍存在,但现有框架多假设环境静态,忽视概念漂移问题,导致灾难性遗忘——仅聚焦新数据分布会损害对旧数据的性能。持续学习可缓解此类问题。本文提出一种新方法:基于提示的持续下一活动预测(CNAPwP),将DualPrompt算法适配于下一活动预测任务,提升准确性和适应性的同时减轻遗忘。我们构建了包含周期性概念漂移的新数据集,并设计任务特定遗忘度量,评估初始与后续任务间预测精度差距。在三个合成和两个真实世界数据集上的广泛测试表明,相较于五种基线方法,CNAPwP达到当前最优或具竞争力的结果,验证其在真实场景中的应用潜力。方法、数据集及结果的开源代码已发布于https://github.com/SvStraten/CNAPwP。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Predictive process monitoring (PPM) focuses on predicting future process trajectories, including next activity predictions. This is crucial in dynamic environments where processes change or face uncertainty. However, current frameworks often assume a static environment, overlooking dynamic characteristics and concept drifts. This results in catastrophic forgetting, where training while focusing merely on new data distribution negatively impacts the performance on previously learned data distributions. Continual learning addresses, among others, the challenges related to mitigating catastrophic forgetting. This paper proposes a novel approach called Continual Next Activity Prediction with Prompts (CNAPwP), which adapts the DualPrompt algorithm for next activity prediction to improve accuracy and adaptability while mitigating catastrophic forgetting. We introduce new datasets with recurring concept drifts, alongside a task-specific forgetting metric that measures the prediction accuracy gap between initial occurrence and subsequent task occurrences. Extensive testing on three synthetic and two real-world datasets representing several setups of recurrent drifts shows that CNAPwP achieves SOTA or competitive results compared to five baselines, demonstrating its potential applicability in real-world scenarios. An open-source implementation of our method, together with the datasets and results, is available at: https://github.com/SvStraten/CNAPwP.
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