arXiv:2604.00800cs.LG2026-04

用中间特征排名对抗机制,提升深度学习在气候变化下的生态预测鲁棒性。

MIRANDA: MId-feature RANk-adversarial Domain Adaptation toward climate change-robust ecological forecasting with deep learning

  • 在中间特征层施加排名对抗,捕捉气候变迁中的时间连续域变化。
  • 在70年、6.78万条数据上,显著缩小深度模型与机理模型的性能差距。
  • 适合关注气候变化下生态预测稳定性的研究者和应用开发者。

植物物候建模旨在从气象时间序列预测叶芽萌发或开花等季节性事件的时间。可靠预测对预判生态系统对气候变化的响应至关重要。传统方法依赖机理模型,而深度学习作为灵活的数据驱动替代方案表现更优。但当气候变迁导致数据分布漂移时,机理模型仍优于深度网络。领域自适应(DA)技术可缓解此问题。然而,气候变迁带来的是时间连续的域变化,同时存在协变量与标签漂移(如气温升高、春季提前)。为此,我们提出中层特征排名对抗域适应(MIRANDA)。不同于传统对抗方法仅在最终隐含表示上强制域不变性(未显式处理标签漂移),MIRANDA 在中间特征上施加对抗正则化,并采用基于排名的目标函数,强制年份间气象表征不变。在覆盖70年、包含5种树种67,800条物候观测的国家级数据集上,实验表明,与传统DA方法相比,MIRANDA能有效提升对气候分布漂移的鲁棒性,显著缩小深度模型与机理模型之间的性能差距。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Plant phenology modelling aims to predict the timing of seasonal phases, such as leaf-out or flowering, from meteorological time series. Reliable predictions are crucial for anticipating ecosystem responses to climate change. While phenology modelling has traditionally relied on mechanistic approaches, deep learning methods have recently been proposed as flexible, data-driven alternatives with often superior performance. However, mechanistic models tend to outperform deep networks when data distribution shifts are induced by climate change. Domain Adaptation (DA) techniques could help address this limitation. Yet, unlike standard DA settings, climate change induces a temporal continuum of domains and involves both a covariate and label shift, with warmer records and earlier start of spring. To tackle this challenge, we introduce Mid-feature Rank-adversarial Domain Adaptation (MIRANDA). Whereas conventional adversarial methods enforce domain invariance on final latent representations, an approach that does not explicitly address label shift, we apply adversarial regularization to intermediate features. Moreover, instead of a binary domain-classification objective, we employ a rank-based objective that enforces year-invariance in the learned meteorological representations. On a country-scale dataset spanning 70 years and comprising 67,800 phenological observations of 5 tree species, we demonstrate that, unlike conventional DA approaches, MIRANDA improves robustness to climatic distribution shifts and narrows the performance gap with mechanistic models.

生态预测域适应气候变化深度学习

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