融合专利多维特征,预测企业级技术融合机会。
A novel three-step approach to forecast firm-specific technology convergence opportunity via multi-dimensional feature fusion
- 从专利中提取文献、网络与文本特征,在IPC对层面融合。
- 通过两阶段集成学习识别IPC级技术融合机会,处理数据不平衡。
- 用大模型检索增强生成评估主题级机会,适合企业研发决策。
技术融合(TC)作为关键创新范式,日益受到关注。然而现有研究多聚焦行业级TC预测,缺乏对企业特定技术机会发现(TOD)的预测方法。尽管专利文档包含丰富的文献计量、网络结构与文本特征,但现有研究仅使用其中一至两个维度,三者融合极为罕见。本文提出一种三步法:首先,从专利中提取三类特征,并在国际专利分类(IPC)对层面通过注意力机制融合;其次,采用两阶段集成学习模型结合多种不平衡处理策略,识别IPC级TC机会;最后,通过检索增强生成(RAG)与大语言模型(LLM)评估由IPC级机会细化的主题级机会性能指标,获得可落地的企业级技术融合机会。以中国某领先汽车零部件企业浙江三花智能控制公司为例,在储能热管理与机器人领域验证了该方法的有效性。本工作推动了企业级技术融合机会预测的理论与应用发展。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
As a crucial innovation paradigm, technology convergence (TC) is gaining ever-increasing attention. Yet, existing studies primarily focus on predicting TC at the industry level, with little attention paid to TC forecast for firm-specific technology opportunity discovery (TOD). Moreover, although technological documents like patents contain a rich body of bibliometric, network structure, and textual features, such features are underexploited in the extant TC predictions; most of the relevant studies only used one or two dimensions of these features, and all the three dimensional features have rarely been fused. Here we propose a novel approach that fuses multi-dimensional features from patents to predict TC for firm-specific TOD. Our method comprises three steps, which are elaborated as follows. First, bibliometric, network structure, and textual features are extracted from patent documents, and then fused at the International Patent Classification (IPC)-pair level using attention mechanisms. Second, IPC-level TC opportunities are identified using a two-stage ensemble learning model that incorporates various imbalance-handling strategies. Third, to acquire feasible firm-specific TC opportunities, the performance metrics of topic-level TC opportunities, which are refined from IPC-level opportunities, are evaluated via retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) with a large language model (LLM). We prove the effectiveness of our proposed approach by predicting TC opportunities for a leading Chinese auto part manufacturer, Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls co., ltd, in the domains of thermal management for energy storage and robotics. In sum, this work advances the theory and applicability of forecasting firm-specific TC opportunity through fusing multi-dimensional features and leveraging LLM-as-a-judge for technology opportunity evaluation.
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