arXiv:2604.00987stat.MLcs.AI2026-04

将经济理论融入神经网络,提升金融模型的稳定性和预测能力

Bridging Structured Knowledge and Data: A Unified Framework with Finance Applications

  • 用可微约束融合理论与数据,统一优化参数估计
  • 在期权定价中显著改善长周期和高波动下的表现
  • 适合需要理论一致性与数据拟合平衡的研究者

我们提出结构化知识引导神经网络(SKINNs),一种统一的估计框架,将理论、模拟、过往学习或跨领域知识作为可微约束嵌入灵活的神经函数逼近中。SKINNs 在单一优化问题中联合估计神经网络参数与经济上有意义的结构参数,通过配点法在更广输入域上强制理论一致性,从而包含函数型GMM、贝叶斯更新、迁移学习、物理信息神经网络(PINNs)和代理建模等方法。SKINNs 定义一类M-估计量,具有根N收敛性、夹心协方差和在误设情形下对伪真参数的恢复能力。我们建立了联合灵活性下的结构参数识别性,基于凸代理推导了分布漂移下的泛化与目标风险界,并给出了控制偏差-方差权衡的权重参数的受限最优表征。在期权定价的金融应用中,SKINNs 提升了样本外估值与对冲性能,尤其在长周期和高波动环境下,同时恢复出更稳定的经济可解释结构参数。总体而言,SKINNs 为结合基于模型的推理与高维数据驱动估计提供了一般性计量经济学框架。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We develop Structured-Knowledge-Informed Neural Networks (SKINNs), a unified estimation framework that embeds theoretical, simulated, previously learned, or cross-domain insights as differentiable constraints within flexible neural function approximation. SKINNs jointly estimate neural network parameters and economically meaningful structural parameters in a single optimization problem, enforcing theoretical consistency not only on observed data but over a broader input domain through collocation, and therefore nesting approaches such as functional GMM, Bayesian updating, transfer learning, PINNs, and surrogate modeling. SKINNs define a class of M-estimators that are consistent and asymptotically normal with root-N convergence, sandwich covariance, and recovery of pseudo-true parameters under misspecification. We establish identification of structural parameters under joint flexibility, derive generalization and target-risk bounds under distributional shift in a convex proxy, and provide a restricted-optimal characterization of the weighting parameter that governs the bias-variance tradeoff. In an illustrative financial application to option pricing, SKINNs improve out-of-sample valuation and hedging performance, particularly at longer horizons and during high-volatility regimes, while recovering economically interpretable structural parameters with improved stability relative to conventional calibration. More broadly, SKINNs provide a general econometric framework for combining model-based reasoning with high-dimensional, data-driven estimation.

神经网络金融建模结构化知识期权定价

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