arXiv:2604.01175cs.LG2026-04

融合物理规律与神经网络,提升空气质量预测精度与可靠性

NeuroDDAF: Neural Dynamic Diffusion-Advection Fields with Evidential Fusion for Air Quality Forecasting

  • 用图注意力与GRU捕捉时空动态,结合风向调节的连续时间模型
  • 在四城数据上实现最高9.7%的RMSE降低,3天预测误差低至48.88 μg/m³
  • 自适应融合物理与数据模型,输出可校准的不确定性估计,适合城市规划者

精准的空气质量预测对公共健康和环境政策至关重要,但受非线性时空动态、风驱动传输及区域分布变化影响,仍具挑战。基于物理的模型可解释性强但计算成本高且假设严格,纯数据驱动模型虽准确但鲁棒性与不确定性校准不足。为此,我们提出神经动态扩散-平流场(NeuroDDAF),一种融合神经表征学习与开放系统输运建模的物理信息框架。NeuroDDAF集成:(i) GRU-图注意力编码器以捕捉时序动态与风相关空间交互;(ii) 傅里叶域扩散-平流模块带可学习残差;(iii) 风调制的潜在神经微分方程,建模随时间变化连接下的连续演化;(iv) 证据融合机制,自适应组合物理引导与神经预测,并量化不确定性。在四个城市数据集(北京、深圳、天津、安科纳)上,1-3天预测中,NeuroDDAF持续优于强基线,包括AirPhyNet,长期预测中RMSE降低最多达9.7%,MAE降低9.4%。在北京数据集上,1天预测RMSE为41.63 μg/m³,3天预测为48.88 μg/m³,为所有方法中最佳。此外,NeuroDDAF提升跨城市泛化能力,不确定性估计经集成方差分析与风况案例研究验证,表现良好。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate air quality forecasting is crucial for protecting public health and guiding environmental policy, yet it remains challenging due to nonlinear spatiotemporal dynamics, wind-driven transport, and distribution shifts across regions. Physics-based models are interpretable but computationally expensive and often rely on restrictive assumptions, whereas purely data-driven models can be accurate but may lack robustness and calibrated uncertainty. To address these limitations, we propose Neural Dynamic Diffusion-Advection Fields (NeuroDDAF), a physics-informed forecasting framework that unifies neural representation learning with open-system transport modeling. NeuroDDAF integrates (i) a GRU-Graph Attention encoder to capture temporal dynamics and wind-aware spatial interactions, (ii) a Fourier-domain diffusion-advection module with learnable residuals, (iii) a wind-modulated latent Neural ODE to model continuous-time evolution under time-varying connectivity, and (iv) an evidential fusion mechanism that adaptively combines physics-guided and neural forecasts while quantifying uncertainty. Experiments on four urban datasets (Beijing, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Ancona) across 1-3 day horizons show that NeuroDDAF consistently outperforms strong baselines, including AirPhyNet, achieving up to 9.7% reduction in RMSE and 9.4% reduction in MAE on long-term forecasts. On the Beijing dataset, NeuroDDAF attains an RMSE of 41.63 $μ$g/m$^3$ for 1-day prediction and 48.88 $μ$g/m$^3$ for 3-day prediction, representing the best performance among all compared methods. In addition, NeuroDDAF improves cross-city generalization and yields well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, as confirmed by ensemble variance analysis and case studies under varying wind conditions.

空气质量预测物理信息模型不确定性量化图神经网络

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。