arXiv:2604.01308cs.LGcs.CE2026-04

用在线机器学习优化能源系统设计,缩小架构与运行性能差距。

An Online Machine Learning Multi-resolution Optimization Framework for Energy System Design Limit of Performance Analysis

  • 基于机器学习动态调节优化精度,自适应选择高低保真模型
  • 使实际运行性能提升42%,高保真模拟次数减少34%
  • 适合需要精准性能验证的工业能源系统设计师

为工业过程设计可靠的集成能源系统,需在架构级规模与高保真动态运行之间进行多保真度优化与验证。然而不同保真度模型间的偏差会掩盖性能损失来源,并使架构与运行性能差距难以量化。本文提出一种在线、机器学习加速的多分辨率优化框架,可在减少昂贵高保真模型调用的前提下,估计特定架构的性能上限。以1兆瓦工业热负荷的示范系统为例,先通过多目标架构优化确定系统配置与组件容量;再开发基于机器学习的多分辨率滚动时域最优控制策略,逼近该架构下的可实现性能边界,补充架构优化模型未涵盖的控制与动态因素。所提方法利用预测不确定性自适应调整优化分辨率,并以优质低保真解热启动高保真求解。案例结果表明,相比规则控制器,该策略将架构-运行性能差距缩小42%;相较无机器学习指导的同等级多保真方法,高保真模型调用减少34%,显著提升设计验证效率与可靠性,使高保真验证变得可行,为实际运行性能提供实用上界。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Designing reliable integrated energy systems for industrial processes requires optimization and verification models across multiple fidelities, from architecture-level sizing to high-fidelity dynamic operation. However, model mismatch across fidelities obscures the sources of performance loss and complicates the quantification of architecture-to-operation performance gaps. We propose an online, machine-learning-accelerated multi-resolution optimization framework that estimates an architecture-specific upper bound on achievable performance while minimizing expensive high-fidelity model evaluations. We demonstrate the approach on a pilot energy system supplying a 1 MW industrial heat load. First, we solve a multi-objective architecture optimization to select the system configuration and component capacities. We then develop an machine learning (ML)-accelerated multi-resolution, receding-horizon optimal control strategy that approaches the achievable-performance bound for the specified architecture, given the additional controls and dynamics not captured by the architectural optimization model. The ML-guided controller adaptively schedules the optimization resolution based on predictive uncertainty and warm-starts high-fidelity solves using elite low-fidelity solutions. Our results on the pilot case study show that the proposed multi-resolution strategy reduces the architecture-to-operation performance gap by up to 42% relative to a rule-based controller, while reducing required high-fidelity model evaluations by 34% relative to the same multi-fidelity approach without ML guidance, enabling faster and more reliable design verification. Together, these gains make high-fidelity verification tractable, providing a practical upper bound on achievable operational performance.

能源系统多保真度机器学习优化

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