arXiv:2604.01775cs.LG2026-04

用深度学习预测需求,再用整数规划生成最优配送方案。

Bridging Deep Learning and Integer Linear Programming: A Predictive-to-Prescriptive Framework for Supply Chain Analytics

  • 结合时序预测与整数规划,构建从预测到决策的完整框架。
  • N-BEATS模型误差最低,准确预测未来4周1918个单位的需求。
  • 生成满足预算、容量和时效约束的可执行配送计划。

尽管需求预测是供应链规划的关键环节,但实际零售数据常存在难以调和的季节性、异常波动和噪声,导致精确预测几乎不可行。本文提出一个三步分析框架,融合预测与运筹优化。第一阶段对180,519笔交易的追踪数据进行探索性分析,识别长期趋势、季节性及交付相关属性。第二阶段对比了统计时序分解模型N-BEATS MSTL与近期深度学习架构N-HiTS的预测性能,结果显示两者均显著优于传统统计基准,其中N-BEATS误差最低,被选为最优模型。第三阶段基于该模型对未来4周1918个单位的需求预测,输入整数线性规划(ILP)求解器,在预算、容量和服务约束下,生成最小化总交付时间的确定性配送方案,结果为可行且成本最优。研究表明,精准预测与高可解释性模型优化在物流领域具有显著实践价值。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Although demand forecasting is a critical component of supply chain planning, actual retail data can exhibit irreconcilable seasonality, irregular spikes, and noise, rendering precise projections nearly unattainable. This paper proposes a three-step analytical framework that combines forecasting and operational analytics. The first stage consists of exploratory data analysis, where delivery-tracked data from 180,519 transactions are partitioned, and long-term trends, seasonality, and delivery-related attributes are examined. Secondly, the forecasting performance of a statistical time series decomposition model N-BEATS MSTL and a recent deep learning architecture N-HiTS were compared. N-BEATS and N-HiTS were both statistically, and hence were N-BEATS's and N-HiTS's statistically selected. Most recent time series deep learning models, N-HiTS, N-BEATS. N-HiTS and N-BEATS N-HiTS and N-HiTS outperformed the statistical benchmark to a large extent. N-BEATS was selected to be the most optimized model, as the one with the lowest forecasting error, in the 3rd and final stage forecasting values of the next 4 weeks of 1918 units, and provided those as a model with a set of deterministically integer linear program outcomes that are aimed to minimize the total delivery time with a set of bound budget, capacity, and service constraints. The solution allocation provided a feasible and cost-optimal shipping plan. Overall, the study provides a compelling example of the practical impact of precise forecasting and simple, highly interpretable model optimization in logistics.

供应链预测决策整数规划

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