用智能算法自动优化防疫措施,减少社会影响
Optimizing Interventions for Agent-Based Infectious Disease Simulations
- 基于语法引导的遗传编程构建干预策略空间
- 在真实德国疫情模拟中找到高效低扰动方案
- 适合公共卫生决策者与仿真研究者使用
非药物干预(NPIs)是药品不可用时控制传染病传播的常用手段,但如何在最小化社会影响的前提下识别有效干预仍具挑战。基于代理的仿真广泛用于评估干预效果,但自动优化面临复杂问题:干预可针对个体多种属性、影响学校、工作场所和家庭等层级结构,且组合方式任意,导致搜索空间极大甚至无限。本文提出代理型传染病干预优化系统(ADIOS),利用语法引导遗传编程(GGGP)优化基于代理的仿真中的NPI。核心是设计领域特定语言,通过上下文无关语法结构化干预搜索空间;并通过定义约束条件,排除语义无效的干预模式以缩小空间。结合与代理仿真系统的接口,ADIOS 实现基于仿真的优化。以德国流行病微观仿真系统(GEMS)为案例,验证了该方法在真实流行病模型中生成最优干预策略的潜力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are commonly used tools for controlling infectious disease transmission when pharmaceutical options are unavailable. Yet, identifying effective interventions that minimize societal disruption remains challenging. Agent-based simulation is a popular tool for analyzing the impact of possible interventions in epidemiology. However, automatically optimizing NPIs using agent-based simulations poses a complex problem because, in agent-based epidemiological models, interventions can target individuals based on multiple attributes, affect hierarchical group structures (e.g., schools, workplaces, and families), and be combined arbitrarily, resulting in a very large or even infinite search space. We aim to support decision-makers with our Agent-based Infectious Disease Intervention Optimization System (ADIOS) that optimizes NPIs for infectious disease simulations using Grammar-Guided Genetic Programming (GGGP). The core of ADIOS is a domain-specific language for expressing NPIs in agent-based simulations that structures the intervention search space through a context-free grammar. To make optimization more efficient, the search space can be further reduced by defining constraints that prevent the generation of semantically invalid intervention patterns. Using this constrained language and an interface that enables coupling with agent-based simulations, ADIOS adopts the GGGP approach for simulation-based optimization. Using the German Epidemic Micro-Simulation System (GEMS) as a case study, we demonstrate the potential of our approach to generate optimal interventions for realistic epidemiological models
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