用YC孵化器数据构建实时创业公司成功预测基准
YC Bench: a Live Benchmark for Forecasting Startup Outperformance in Y Combinator Batches
- 以公开可见度和早期增长信号合成预演示日评分，快速评估初创企业表现
- 基于谷歌提及量的基线模型在11个顶尖企业中召回6家（55%召回率）
- 适合研究早期创业成功预测的学者与投资者，迭代周期从年缩短至月
预测初创企业成功极为困难，因重大成果如退出、大额融资或持续收入增长稀少且需多年才能显现，导致信号稀缺、评估周期漫长。而Y Combinator每批次约200家初创企业同时获资，仅三个月后即举行Demo Day，提供了独特机会。我们提出YC Bench，一个用于预测YC批次内早期出类拔萃企业的实时基准。以YC W26批次（196家初创企业）为案例，采用预演示日评分（Pre-Demo Day Score）作为绩效衡量指标，该指标结合公开可得的早期增长信号与网络可见性。此短期指标使预测模型得以快速验证。作为基线，我们使用申请截止前的谷歌提及量作为品牌认知度代理，成功识别出11位顶尖企业中的6位（55%召回率）。YC Bench提供了一个可在数月内完成迭代的实时预测研究平台。代码与数据已开源：https://github.com/benstaf/ycbench
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Forecasting startup success is notoriously difficult, partly because meaningful outcomes, such as exits, large funding rounds, and sustained revenue growth, are rare and can take years to materialize. As a result, signals are sparse and evaluation cycles are slow. Y Combinator batches offer a unique mitigation: each batch comprises around 200 startups, funded simultaneously, with evaluation at Demo Day only three months later. We introduce YC Bench, a live benchmark for forecasting early outperformance within YC batches. Using the YC W26 batch as a case study (196 startups), we measure outperformance with a Pre-Demo Day Score, a KPI combining publicly available traction signals and web visibility. This short-term metric enables rapid evaluation of forecasting models. As a baseline, we take Google mentions prior to the YC W26 application deadline, a simple proxy for prior brand recognition, recovering 6 of 11 top performers at YC Demo Day (55% recall). YC Bench provides a live benchmark for studying startup success forecasting, with iteration cycles measured in months rather than years. Code and Data are available on GitHub: https://github.com/benstaf/ycbench
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品；中文卡片由大模型生成，请以原文为准。