AI在金融市场的普及通过三重机制放大系统性风险,且风险增长速度随采用率上升而加速。
Artificial Intelligence and Systemic Risk: A Unified Model of Performative Prediction, Algorithmic Herding, and Cognitive Dependency in Financial Markets

- 构建统一模型揭示AI通过预测反馈、算法跟风和认知依赖三通道引发风险
- 系统性风险倍增因子随AI采用率呈超线性增长,尾部损失放大18%至54%
- 基于9950万持仓数据验证,适合关注金融稳定与监管的学者及从业者
我们构建了一个统一模型,揭示金融市场上人工智能的采纳通过三种相互强化的渠道——表现性预测、算法跟风和认知依赖——产生系统性风险。在内生采纳的扩展理性预期框架下,推导出均衡系统性风险耦合项 $r(ϕ) = ϕρβ/λ'(ϕ)$,其中 $ϕ$ 为AI采用率,$ρ$ 为算法信号相关性,$β$ 为表现性反馈强度,$λ'(ϕ)$ 为内生有效价格冲击。由于 $λ'(ϕ)$ 随 $ϕ$ 增加而下降,耦合项在采用率上呈凸性,意味着系统性风险倍增因子 $M = (1 - r)^{-1}$ 随AI渗透率提升而超线性增长。模型分三层构建:第一层,市场深度随AI采用率增加而递减且凸;第二层,将凸耦合嵌入超模态采纳博弈中,产生鞍点分歧,导向算法单一化;第三层,将认知依赖作为内生状态变量,得出不可能定理(滞后需动态机制)与必要性定理(三通道缺一不可)。实证使用全部美国证监会13F表格数据(9950万持仓,10957家机构经理,2013–2024年),采用Bartik转移份额工具变量(第一阶段 $F = 22.7$),结果显示尾部损失放大18%–54%,经济意义显著,远超巴塞尔III逆周期缓冲水平。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We develop a unified model in which AI adoption in financial markets generates systemic risk through three mutually reinforcing channels: performative prediction, algorithmic herding, and cognitive dependency. Within an extended rational expectations framework with endogenous adoption, we derive an equilibrium systemic risk coupling $r(ϕ) = ϕρβ/λ'(ϕ)$, where $ϕ$ is the AI adoption share, $ρ$ the algorithmic signal correlation, $β$ the performative feedback intensity, and $λ'(ϕ)$ the endogenous effective price impact. Because $λ'(ϕ)$ is decreasing in $ϕ$, the coupling is convex in adoption, implying that the systemic risk multiplier $M = (1 - r)^{-1}$ grows superlinearly as AI penetration increases. The model is developed in three layers. First, endogenous fragility: market depth is decreasing and convex in AI adoption. Second, embedding the convex coupling within a supermodular adoption game produces a saddle-node bifurcation into an algorithmic monoculture. Third, cognitive dependency as an endogenous state variable yields an impossibility theorem (hysteresis requires dynamics beyond static frameworks) and a channel necessity theorem (each channel is individually necessary). Empirical validation uses the complete universe of SEC Form 13F filings (99.5 million holdings, 10,957 institutional managers, 2013--2024) with a Bartik shift-share instrument (first-stage $F = 22.7$). The model implies tail-loss amplification of 18--54%, economically significant relative to Basel III countercyclical buffers.
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