用贝叶斯方法选择最佳追踪策略,提升机器人多目标跟踪的可靠性。
Diffusion Policy with Bayesian Expert Selection for Active Multi-Target Tracking

- 基于贝叶斯框架,为扩散策略选择最可靠的专家
- 在模拟场景中追踪成功率比基线高12.7%
- 适合需要稳定决策的移动机器人任务
主动多目标追踪要求移动机器人在探索未发现目标与利用不确定追踪目标之间取得平衡。扩散策略通过从专家示范中学习动作序列,展现出捕捉多样化行为策略的能力。然而,现有方法通过去噪过程隐式选择策略,缺乏对执行哪个策略的不确定性量化。本文将扩散策略的专家选择建模为离线上下文老虎机问题,提出一种悲观、不确定性感知的贝叶斯选择框架。采用多头变分贝叶斯最后层(VBLL)模型,根据当前信念状态预测各专家策略的预期追踪性能,同时提供点估计和预测不确定性。遵循离线决策的悲观原则,使用置信下界(LCB)准则选择其最差情况预测性能最优的专家,避免对不可靠预测过度依赖。所选专家用于条件化扩散策略生成对应动作序列。在模拟室内追踪场景中的实验表明,该方法优于基础扩散策略及标准门控方法,包括专家混合选择和确定性回归基线。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Active multi-target tracking requires a mobile robot to balance exploration for undetected targets with exploitation of uncertain tracked ones. Diffusion policies have emerged as a powerful approach for capturing diverse behavioral strategies by learning action sequences from expert demonstrations. However, existing methods implicitly select among strategies through the denoising process, without uncertainty quantification over which strategy to execute. We formulate expert selection for diffusion policies as an offline contextual bandit problem and propose a Bayesian framework for pessimistic, uncertainty-aware strategy selection. A multi-head Variational Bayesian Last Layer (VBLL) model predicts the expected tracking performance of each expert strategy given the current belief state, providing both a point estimate and predictive uncertainty. Following the pessimism principle for offline decision-making, a Lower Confidence Bound (LCB) criterion then selects the expert whose worst-case predicted performance is best, avoiding overcommitment to experts with unreliable predictions. The selected expert conditions a diffusion policy to generate corresponding action sequences. Experiments on simulated indoor tracking scenarios demonstrate that our approach outperforms both the base diffusion policy and standard gating methods, including Mixture-of-Experts selection and deterministic regression baselines.
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