发现周围车辆反会降低轨迹预测准确率,提出新方法自动过滤干扰信息。
Super Agents and Confounders: Influence of surrounding agents on vehicle trajectory prediction
- 用信息瓶颈压缩周围车辆特征,主动忽略无效信息
- 在多个数据集上提升预测精度并增强对扰动的鲁棒性
- 揭示模型依赖非因果信号,适合自动驾驶场景优化
在高度交互的驾驶场景中,轨迹预测依赖于周围交通参与者(如汽车、行人)的信息。本文对当前主流轨迹预测模型进行全面分析,发现一个令人惊讶且关键的问题:许多周围车辆反而会降低预测准确率。通过基于Shapley值的归因分析,我们严谨证明了模型学习到的是不稳定且非因果的决策机制,且在不同训练轮次间差异显著。基于此,我们提出引入条件信息瓶颈(CIB),无需额外监督,可有效压缩代理特征并忽略对预测无益的信息。在多个数据集和模型架构上的综合实验表明,该方法虽简单却高效,不仅在多数情况下提升整体预测性能,还增强了对各种扰动的鲁棒性。结果强调了在轨迹预测中需有选择地整合上下文信息的重要性,因为其中常包含虚假或误导性信号。此外,我们提供了可解释的指标来识别非鲁棒行为,并展示了一条可行的解决路径。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
In highly interactive driving scenes, trajectory prediction is conditioned on information from surrounding traffic participants such as cars and pedestrians. Our main contribution is a comprehensive analysis of state-of-the-art trajectory predictors, which reveals a surprising and critical flaw: many surrounding agents degrade prediction accuracy rather than improve it. Using Shapley-based attribution, we rigorously demonstrate that models learn unstable and non-causal decision-making schemes that vary significantly across training runs. Building on these insights, we propose to integrate a Conditional Information Bottleneck (CIB), which does not require additional supervision and is trained to effectively compress agent features as well as ignore those that are not beneficial for the prediction task. Comprehensive experiments using multiple datasets and model architectures demonstrate that this simple yet effective approach not only improves overall trajectory prediction performance in many cases but also increases robustness to different perturbations. Our results highlight the importance of selectively integrating contextual information, which can often contain spurious or misleading signals, in trajectory prediction. Moreover, we provide interpretable metrics for identifying non-robust behavior and present a promising avenue towards a solution.
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