arXiv:2604.03874cs.LGcs.CE2026-04

用神经过程模型填补遥感数据空洞,精准估算森林碳储量并量化不确定性。

Neural Processes Maintain Calibrated Biomass Estimates Across Spatiotemporal Gaps and Disturbance

论文配图:Neural Processes Maintain Calibrated Biomass Estimates Across Spatiotemporal Gaps and Disturbance
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于注意力神经过程,融合时空嵌入实现稀疏数据的联合插补。
  • 在2023-2024年13个月中断期仍保持预测准确性与校准的不确定性区间。
  • 适合需要可信置信度的碳汇监测与核查(MRV)应用。

监测毁林导致的碳排放需兼具空间分辨率和时间连续性的地上生物量密度(AGBD)估算,并附带校准的不确定性。美国宇航局全球生态系统动态调查(GEDI)提供可靠的激光雷达反演AGBD,但其轨道采样造成不规则的时空覆盖,且曾因运营中断出现长达13个月(2023年3月至2024年4月)的数据停摆,形成显著观测空白。此前研究利用机器学习填补空间间隙,但对扰动事件期间的时序插值仍缺乏有效方法。此外,标准集成方法常产生系统性偏差的预测区间。为此,本文扩展了注意力神经过程(ANP)框架,首次将其应用于稀疏时空场景,结合地理空间基础模型嵌入,对时空维度进行对称建模。实证验证了‘以空代时’的有效性:利用其他时段邻近位置的观测信息,提升目标时间段的预测能力。结果表明,该方法在各类扰动条件下均能生成校准良好的不确定性估计,支持其在需可靠不确定性量化之森林碳核算(测量、报告、核查,MRV)中的应用。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Monitoring deforestation-driven carbon emissions requires both spatially explicit and temporally continuous estimates of aboveground biomass density (AGBD) with calibrated uncertainty. NASA's Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) provides reliable LIDAR-derived AGBD, but its orbital sampling causes irregular spatiotemporal coverage, and occasional operational interruptions, including a 13-month hibernation from March 2023 to April 2024, leave extended gaps in the observational record. Prior work has used machine learning approaches to fill GEDI's spatial gaps using satellite-derived features, but temporal interpolation of biomass through unobserved periods, particularly across active disturbance events, remains largely unaddressed. Moreover, standard ensemble methods for biomass mapping have been shown to produce systematically miscalibrated prediction intervals. To address these gaps, we extend the Attentive Neural Process (ANP) framework, previously applied to spatial biomass interpolation, to jointly sparse spatiotemporal settings using geospatial foundation model embeddings. We treat space and time symmetrically, empirically validating a form of space-for-time substitution in which observations from nearby locations at other times inform predictions at held-out periods. Our results demonstrate that the ANP produces well-calibrated uncertainty estimates across disturbance regimes, supporting its use in Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) applications that require reliable uncertainty quantification for forest carbon accounting.

森林碳汇不确定性量化时空建模神经过程

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。