arXiv:2604.03906cs.LGphysics.ao-ph2026-04

新指标JKGE_ss能更好捕捉水文系统动态变化,提升模型性能。

Improving Model Performance by Adapting the KGE Metric to Account for System Non-Stationarity

  • 基于时变特性改进评估指标,不再依赖长期均值基准
  • 在不同气候条件下均显著提升对水流变化的模拟精度
  • 特别适合应对气候变化下水文系统非平稳性的研究者使用

地学系统普遍具有显著的时间非平稳性,源于水文气象驱动因子的季节与气候波动,以及自然和人为引起的土地利用与覆盖变化。这种变化使得水管理中的“统计平稳性假设”过时,要求我们应关注而非忽略非平稳趋势。然而,现有模型评估指标通常隐含且不合理地假设数据生成过程是时间平稳的。本文提出改进版指标JKGE_ss(源自KGE_ss),可检测并适应数据统计特性的动态非平稳性,从而提升信息提取与模型性能。与NSE和KGE_ss不同,JKGE_ss强调重现系统储水量的时变特征,而非以长期均值为基准。我们在多种复杂度的物理概念与数据驱动流域模型上,跨广泛水文气候条件(从近期降水主导到积雪主导再到强干旱)进行了测试。结果表明,无论湿年或干年、全流量范围(尤其枯水期),模型对系统时间动态的再现能力均显著提升。传统指标因无法有效反映系统动态的时间转移,可能在变化条件下给出误导性性能评估。因此,建议在地学模型开发中采用JKGE_ss。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Geoscientific systems tend to be characterized by pronounced temporal non-stationarity, arising from seasonal and climatic variability in hydrometeorological drivers, and from natural and anthropogenic changes to land use and cover. As has been pointed out, such variability renders "the assumption of statistical stationarity obsolete in water management", and requires us to "account for, rather than ignore, non-stationary trends" in the data. However, metrics used for model development are typically based on the implicit and unjustifiable assumption that the data generating process is time-stationary. Here, we introduce the JKGE_ss metric (adapted from KGE_ss) that detects and accounts for dynamical non-stationarity in the statistical properties of the data and thereby improves information extraction and model performance. Unlike NSE and KGE_ss, which use the long-term mean as a benchmark against which to evaluate model efficiency, JKGE_ss emphasizes reproduction of temporal variations in system storage. We tested the robustness of the new metric by training physical-conceptual and data-based catchment-scale models of varying complexity across a wide range of hydroclimatic conditions, from recent-precipitation-dominated to snow-dominated to strongly arid. In all cases, the result was improved reproduction of system temporal dynamics at all time scales, across wet to dry years, and over the full range of flow levels (especially recession periods). Since traditional metrics fail to adequately account for temporal shifts in system dynamics, potentially resulting in misleading assessments of model performance under changing conditions, we recommend the adoption of JKGE_ss for geoscientific model development.

水文建模非平稳性评估指标时变系统

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。