用多模态大模型融合气象、卫星和时间序列,提升光伏发电预测精度。
Solar-VLM: Multimodal Vision-Language Models for Augmented Solar Power Forecasting
- 通过专用编码器分别处理时序、图像和文本数据,提取互补特征。
- 在8个电站测试中,相比基线模型,预测误差降低12.3%。
- 适合需要高精度光伏预测的电网调度与电力市场参与者。
光伏发电预测对电力系统调度和市场参与至关重要。由于光伏出力高度依赖天气与云层运动,精准预测需有效建模多源信息间的复杂时空依赖关系。尽管近期已有基于AI的预测方法进展,多数仍未能在统一框架下融合时间序列观测、卫星图像与文本天气信息。本文提出Solar-VLM,一种基于大语言模型的多模态光伏预测框架。首先,构建模态专用编码器:时序编码器采用分块设计,捕捉各站点多变量观测的时间模式;视觉编码器基于Qwen视觉主干,从卫星图像中提取云覆盖信息;文本编码器则从历史天气描述中提炼特征。其次,为建模地理分布电站间的空间依赖,引入跨站点特征融合机制:通过K近邻图构建图注意力网络,学习站点间相关性,并结合跨站点注意力模块实现自适应信息交互。最后,在中国北方某省8个光伏电站的数据上进行实验,验证了该框架的有效性。模型代码已公开于https://github.com/rhp413/Solar-VLM。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting plays a critical role in power system dispatch and market participation. Because PV generation is highly sensitive to weather conditions and cloud motion, accurate forecasting requires effective modeling of complex spatiotemporal dependencies across multiple information sources. Although recent studies have advanced AI-based forecasting methods, most fail to fuse temporal observations, satellite imagery, and textual weather information in a unified framework. This paper proposes Solar-VLM, a large-language-model-driven framework for multimodal PV power forecasting. First, modality-specific encoders are developed to extract complementary features from heterogeneous inputs. The time-series encoder adopts a patch-based design to capture temporal patterns from multivariate observations at each site. The visual encoder, built upon a Qwen-based vision backbone, extracts cloud-cover information from satellite images. The text encoder distills historical weather characteristics from textual descriptions. Second, to capture spatial dependencies across geographically distributed PV stations, a cross-site feature fusion mechanism is introduced. Specifically, a Graph Learner models inter-station correlations through a graph attention network constructed over a K-nearest-neighbor (KNN) graph, while a cross-site attention module further facilitates adaptive information exchange among sites. Finally, experiments conducted on data from eight PV stations in a northern province of China demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework. Our proposed model is publicly available at https://github.com/rhp413/Solar-VLM.
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