arXiv:2604.04573cs.ETcs.LG2026-04

针对自动驾驶中罕见但危险的复杂交通行为,提出自适应学习框架提升预测准确率。

SAIL: Scene-aware Adaptive Iterative Learning for Long-Tail Trajectory Prediction in Autonomous Vehicles

  • 从误差、碰撞风险、状态复杂度三维度定义长尾轨迹,指导增强与学习。
  • 在nuScenes数据集上,对最难1%长尾样本预测误差降低28.8%。
  • 适合关注自动驾驶安全与稀有场景建模的研究者和工程师。

自动驾驶车辆依赖精确的轨迹预测以在多样交通环境中安全导航,但现有模型难以应对长尾场景——即罕见但高危的突发行为,其特征为急剧变道、高碰撞风险及复杂交互。问题根源在于数据不平衡、长尾轨迹定义不清以及学习策略偏向常见行为。为此,我们提出SAIL框架,首次从预测误差、碰撞风险与状态复杂度三个关键维度系统定义并建模长尾轨迹。该框架结合属性引导的数据增强与特征提取,采用自适应对比学习策略:包括连续余弦动量调度、相似性加权难负样本挖掘,以及基于动态聚类的伪标签机制;同时引入聚焦机制,强化对每类中困难正样本的学习。大量实验表明,SAIL在nuScenes和ETH/UCY数据集上表现卓越,在最困难的1%长尾样本上预测误差降低达28.8%,同时保持全场景竞争力,显著提升了真实混合自动化环境下的轨迹预测可靠性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) rely on accurate trajectory prediction for safe navigation in diverse traffic environments, yet existing models struggle with long-tail scenarios-rare but safety-critical events characterized by abrupt maneuvers, high collision risks, and complex interactions. These challenges stem from data imbalance, inadequate definitions of long-tail trajectories, and suboptimal learning strategies that prioritize common behaviors over infrequent ones. To address this, we propose SAIL, a novel framework that systematically tackles the long-tail problem by first defining and modeling trajectories across three key attribute dimensions: prediction error, collision risk, and state complexity. Our approach then synergizes an attribute-guided augmentation and feature extraction process with a highly adaptive contrastive learning strategy. This strategy employs a continuous cosine momentum schedule, similarity-weighted hard-negative mining, and a dynamic pseudo-labeling mechanism based on evolving feature clustering. Furthermore, it incorporates a focusing mechanism to intensify learning on hard-positive samples within each identified class. This comprehensive design enables SAIL to excel at identifying and forecasting diverse and challenging long-tail events. Extensive evaluations on the nuScenes and ETH/UCY datasets demonstrate SAIL's superior performance, achieving up to 28.8% reduction in prediction error on the hardest 1% of long-tail samples compared to state-of-the-art baselines, while maintaining competitive accuracy across all scenarios. This framework advances reliable AV trajectory prediction in real-world, mixed-autonomy settings.

自动驾驶长尾预测对比学习轨迹生成

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